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City of NewcastlePopulation forecast

Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West indicate a 94.5% increase in population under working age, a 30.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 61.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Newcastle is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West - Total persons202120312036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41772.83303.33973.3+220
5 to 91282.02452.53022.5+174
10 to 141131.82382.43172.6+205
15 to 191722.73623.64223.5+249
20 to 245468.69089.11,0498.7+503
25 to 2974011.61,18211.81,44711.9+707
30 to 3466110.41,01410.21,1579.5+495
35 to 394797.57797.89397.7+460
40 to 443665.87457.59027.4+536
45 to 493385.36566.68326.9+494
50 to 543755.96066.18196.8+444
55 to 594657.36286.37175.9+252
60 to 644577.25425.46955.7+238
65 to 693715.85315.36045.0+233
70 to 743826.04824.85524.6+170
75 to 792794.43253.34223.5+143
80 to 841943.02052.12582.1+64
85 and over1181.82042.02852.4+168
Total persons6,361100.09,982100.012,115100.0+5,754
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), March 2024.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 11.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29, which is expected to increase by 442 and account for 11.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 1,182 persons.

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