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City of JoondalupPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Duncraig indicate a 7.4% increase in population under working age, a 26.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Duncraig is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Duncraig - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49475.91,0826.31,2036.4+256
5 to 91,3128.21,2617.41,3967.5+84
10 to 141,1167.01,2817.51,4147.6+298
15 to 199896.21,1006.41,2086.5+219
20 to 248705.58545.09044.8+34
25 to 296444.06954.17674.1+123
30 to 348255.28795.19765.2+151
35 to 391,0346.51,1516.71,2736.8+239
40 to 441,2347.71,2867.51,4227.6+188
45 to 491,2457.81,2587.31,3787.4+133
50 to 541,0026.31,0826.31,1806.3+178
55 to 591,0106.39745.71,0355.5+25
60 to 641,0826.89195.49575.1-125
65 to 691,0076.38004.78814.7-126
70 to 746824.37424.37804.2+98
75 to 793842.47084.16823.7+298
80 to 842301.45863.45983.2+368
85 and over3282.14802.86073.3+279
Total persons15,941100.017,137100.018,662100.0+2,721
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Duncraig was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 80 to 84, which is expected to increase by 356 and account for 3.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 1,286 persons.

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