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City of JoondalupPopulation forecast

Ocean Reef

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Ocean Reef indicate a 13.8% increase in population under working age, a 45.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.3% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ocean Reef is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ocean Reef - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43584.34865.55865.7+228
5 to 95326.45976.87257.0+193
10 to 146377.76547.57927.7+155
15 to 196808.26157.07527.3+72
20 to 245947.24845.55695.5-25
25 to 293804.63924.54624.5+82
30 to 343424.14335.05235.1+181
35 to 394355.35486.36646.4+229
40 to 445446.66577.58017.8+257
45 to 497499.17198.28808.5+131
50 to 547118.66467.47827.6+71
55 to 596487.95055.85935.7-55
60 to 645676.94635.34684.5-99
65 to 694405.34224.84174.0-23
70 to 742683.23934.53973.9+129
75 to 791622.03453.93493.4+187
80 to 841281.62482.83103.0+182
85 and over750.91481.72392.3+164
Total persons8,250100.08,757100.010,310100.0+2,060
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Ocean Reef was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 183 and account for 3.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 719 persons.

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