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City of CaseyPopulation forecast

City of Casey

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2034, the age structure forecasts for City of Casey indicate a 66.9% increase in population under working age, a 106.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 52.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Casey is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
City of Casey - Total persons201620342041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)25,6418.239,8677.942,1667.7+16,525
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)33,35610.657,03111.360,04910.9+26,693
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)25,6088.243,8218.746,9678.6+21,359
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)31,41910.045,1548.948,9688.9+17,549
Young workforce (25 to 34)48,12215.372,79114.477,91114.2+29,789
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)67,76321.6108,15821.4115,46121.0+47,698
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)36,52711.752,88910.559,64910.9+23,122
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)24,7797.940,2598.044,3518.1+19,572
Seniors (70 to 84)16,8135.437,9717.543,7058.0+26,892
Elderly aged (85 and over)3,4931.18,1451.69,9651.8+6,472
Total persons313,521100.0506,085100.0549,190100.0+235,669
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Casey was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 21.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2034 is forecast to be in ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which is expected to increase by 40,395 and account for 21.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2034 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 108,158 persons.

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