Powered by .id (informed decisions) for City of Casey
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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idBetween 2021 and 2036, the age structure forecasts for Narre Warren South indicate a 3.1% decrease in females under working age, a 67.7% increase in females of retirement age, and a 4.0% decrease in females of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of the City of Casey is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
| Forecast age structure - Service age groups | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narre Warren South - Total females | 2021 | 2036 | 2046 | Change between 2021 and 2046 | |||
| Age group (years) | Number | % | Number | % | Number | % | Number |
| Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) | 947 | 6.1 | 1,001 | 6.2 | 1,017 | 6.1 | +70 |
| Primary schoolers (5 to 11) | 1,608 | 10.3 | 1,560 | 9.7 | 1,589 | 9.6 | -19 |
| Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) | 1,679 | 10.8 | 1,466 | 9.1 | 1,505 | 9.1 | -175 |
| Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24) | 1,687 | 10.8 | 1,606 | 10.0 | 1,638 | 9.9 | -49 |
| Young workforce (25 to 34) | 1,891 | 12.1 | 1,967 | 12.3 | 1,999 | 12.0 | +109 |
| Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) | 3,527 | 22.6 | 3,249 | 20.3 | 3,327 | 20.0 | -200 |
| Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59) | 2,133 | 13.7 | 1,960 | 12.2 | 1,954 | 11.8 | -179 |
| Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69) | 1,214 | 7.8 | 1,570 | 9.8 | 1,466 | 8.8 | +252 |
| Seniors (70 to 84) | 796 | 5.1 | 1,334 | 8.3 | 1,650 | 9.9 | +855 |
| Elderly aged (85 and over) | 123 | 0.8 | 315 | 2.0 | 452 | 2.7 | +329 |
| Total persons | 15,604 | 100.0 | 16,027 | 100.0 | 16,596 | 100.0 | +991 |
Key findings
In 2021, the dominant age structure for females in Narre Warren South was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 22.6% of the total females.
The largest increase in females between 2021 and 2036 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 538 and account for 8.3% of the total females.
The largest female 5 year age group in 2036 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 3,249 females.
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