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Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast

Shellharbour City Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, Shellharbour - Barrack Point is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.60 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.56 in 2041.

The number of births in Shellharbour City Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Shellharbour City CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Shellharbour City Council1.942.02+0.08
Albion Park2.001.95-0.05
Albion Park Rail1.891.85-0.05
Barrack Heights1.751.70-0.05
Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre1.781.73-0.05
Lake Illawarra2.322.27-0.05
Mount Warrigal1.981.93-0.05
Oak Flats1.871.83-0.04
Rural Balance2.392.34-0.05
Shell Cove1.911.86-0.05
Shellharbour - Barrack Point2.602.56-0.05
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2021.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Shellharbour City Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Shellharbour City Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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