Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Shellharbour City

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Shellharbour City indicate a 17.0% increase in population under working age, a 46.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shellharbour City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Shellharbour City - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,6846.65,4946.76,2066.5+1,522
5 to 94,9077.05,7287.06,3996.7+1,492
10 to 144,7136.75,5156.76,2076.5+1,494
15 to 194,9087.05,1856.35,8506.2+942
20 to 244,6076.54,5935.65,1895.5+582
25 to 294,2106.04,5785.65,0115.3+801
30 to 344,3956.25,0056.15,5355.8+1,140
35 to 394,1575.95,2736.45,9556.3+1,798
40 to 444,6976.75,3256.56,1006.4+1,403
45 to 494,5616.54,8765.95,8856.2+1,324
50 to 544,7656.84,7305.75,4265.7+661
55 to 594,5856.54,5815.65,0965.4+511
60 to 643,9335.64,7965.84,8385.1+905
65 to 693,6755.24,6765.74,8585.1+1,183
70 to 742,7994.03,9024.74,5624.8+1,763
75 to 792,1283.03,2073.94,2144.4+2,086
80 to 841,4172.02,2722.83,5893.8+2,171
85 and over1,3511.92,5563.13,9574.2+2,606
Total persons70,492100.082,293100.094,877100.0+24,385

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 3,957 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 3,589 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 4,214 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 4,562 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 4,858 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 4,838 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 5,096 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 5,426 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 5,885 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 6,100 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 5,955 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 5,535 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 5,011 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 5,189 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 5,850 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 6,207 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 6,399 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 6,206 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 2,556 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 2,272 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 3,207 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 3,902 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 4,676 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 4,796 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 4,581 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 4,730 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 4,876 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 5,325 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 5,273 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 5,005 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 4,578 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 4,593 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 5,185 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 5,515 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 5,728 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 5,494 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,351 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 1,417 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 2,128 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,799 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,675 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 3,933 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 4,585 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 4,765 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 4,561 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 4,697 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 4,157 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 4,395 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 4,210 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 4,607 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 4,908 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 4,713 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 4,907 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 4,684
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 1,401 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 1,316 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 1,007 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 660 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 183 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 42 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 515 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 696 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 1,008 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 775 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 682 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 530 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 433 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 596 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 665 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 691 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 671 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 712 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 1,205 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 855 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 1,079 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 1,103 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 1,001 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 863 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -4 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -35 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 315 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 628 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 1,116 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 610 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 368 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -13 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 277 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 802 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 821 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 810
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Shellharbour City was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 1,205 and account for 3.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 5,728 persons.

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