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Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast

Shellharbour City Council

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Shellharbour City Council indicate a 11.4% increase in population under working age, a 11.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 12.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shellharbour City Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Shellharbour City Council - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,7226.25,5166.56,4536.3+1,731
5 to 94,9476.55,4786.46,6116.5+1,664
10 to 145,2376.95,6106.66,7326.6+1,495
15 to 194,8506.35,5256.56,4626.3+1,612
20 to 244,6816.15,3736.36,1796.1+1,498
25 to 294,8876.45,5436.56,3656.3+1,478
30 to 344,8796.45,7486.76,6996.6+1,820
35 to 394,8356.35,6086.66,7756.7+1,940
40 to 444,5566.05,4236.36,6686.6+2,112
45 to 494,9646.55,2016.16,5716.5+1,607
50 to 544,6676.15,2586.16,1446.0+1,477
55 to 594,8716.45,0015.85,8355.7+964
60 to 644,7196.25,0265.95,4795.4+760
65 to 693,9905.24,6885.55,2335.1+1,243
70 to 743,6364.83,7534.44,6394.6+1,003
75 to 792,5393.33,0993.63,9533.9+1,414
80 to 841,8042.41,9362.32,8942.8+1,090
85 and over1,6642.21,7262.02,0862.0+422
Total persons76,448100.085,510100.0101,777100.0+25,329
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Shellharbour City Council was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 6.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 869 and account for 6.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 5,748 persons.

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