Shire of GinginPopulation forecast
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Shire of Gingin

Drivers of population change

Development history

The Shire of Gingin is located between 60 and 130 kilometres to the north of Perth. The Shire is predominantly rural and the bulk of the population are based around the five town sites of Gingin, Guilderton, Lancelin, Ledge Point and Seabird.

The original inhabitants of the Gingin area were the Yued Aboriginal people. European settlement dates from the 1840s, but urban development was minimal until the 1890s, with the construction of the rail line to Geraldton spurring growth in the township of Gingin. The coastal townships initially served as holiday destinations during the early 20th century, and began establishing permanent populations in the 1950s.

Migration patterns

The Shire of Gingin’s population has increased steadily since the 1960s, with higher amount of growth occurring from the late 1970s. During the 1990s, population growth in the Shire focused around the Rural - Gingin and Lower Coastal small areas, while more recently the majority of growth has taken place solely in the Lower Coastal small area. The primary housing market role that the Shire played over this period was to provide rural-residential housing options for families and retires generally originating in metropolitan Perth or from overseas. The coastal areas also cater for large influxes of persons during the summer holiday season. These trends are likely to continue into the future, as the southern areas of the shire lie within commuting distance to employment in metropolitan Perth (and in particular, Perth's northern suburbs).

Historical migration flows, Shire of Gingin, 2016-2011
Historical migration flows, Shire of Gingin, 2016-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

With the variety of medium and low density residential and rural locations, different areas within the Shire of Gingin have developed different roles within the housing market. The Lower Coastal area tended to attract more mature and established families as well as retirees, while the Upper Coastal area attracted younger families along with retiree households. Rural - Gingin has attracted mostly family households with lower levels of retirees in comparison the coastal areas of the shire. All areas of the Shire lose young adults as they seek employment and educational opportunities in larger centres. This trend is common to most areas on the periphery of major cities in Australia. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the Shire of Gingin means that population outcomes differ significantly across the Shire.

Housing supply

There are also differences in the supply of future residential land within the Shire which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to ten years. New development opportunities have been identified in all small areas, with a mix of new greenfield residential estates and rural residential development expected at differing time throughout the shire.

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