City of Canada Bay CouncilPopulation forecast
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City of Canada Bay

Drivers of population change

Development History

The City of Canada Bay is located in the inner-western suburbs of Sydney, about 6-12 kilometres from the Sydney GPO. It encompasses a total land area of 20 square kilometres, including many parks, reserves and foreshores. The original inhabitants of the Canada Bay area were the Wangal clan of the Darug Aboriginal people. European settlement dates from 1793, with land used mainly for farming. Residential growth took place during the late 1800s and early 1900s, aided by improved access and industrial growth. Significant development occurred during the post-war years. The population was relatively stable between 1991 and 1996, and then increased from nearly 54,000 in 1996 to over 65,000 in 2006 and over 80,000 in 2011. Recent growth has been largely due to the redevelopment of previous industrial sites into residential developments, particularly high density housing. Population growth is expected to continue, especially in Rhodes and Breakfast Point.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the City has played in the post war era has been to provide housing for families. This role continues, although increasingly a number of areas attract predominantly young singles and couples due to the higher density housing stock. There has been considerable conversion of industrial land to apartments in Rhodes and town house developments in Liberty Grove and Breakfast Point. The conversion of industrial land to new residential housing (especially higher density forms) is a pattern that is set to continue into the future, with future opportunities for “brownfield” development. In addition, in the mid to longer term, it is expected that there will be greater intensification of housing around the rail stations in Concord West, North Strathfield and Strathfield, as well as other centres such as Drummoyne and Five Dock. The significant amount of development that has occurred has attracted overseas migrants, as well people from inner western councils. In net terms, the area attracts young adults in their late teens and twenties and loses younger families.

Historical migration flows, City of Canada Bay, 2016-2011
Historical migration flows, City of Canada Bay, 2016-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

Within City of Canada Bay, areas have developed and will continue to evolve different roles within the housing market. Variations occur due to when areas were settled, the range of land uses in the area, developer interest and the varying planning policies in play. Rhodes, Liberty Grove, Strathfield, Abbotsford-Wareemba, Drummoyne, Chiswick and Russell Lea-Rodd Point tend to attract people in their late teens and twenties due to the higher share of rental stock (apartments) and (in some cases) proximity to rail links and other services. Concord, Cabarita and Concord West continue to attract established and mature families. Five Dock-Canada Bay tends to attract young professional couples and singles without children, whilst Mortlake-Breakfast Point, with the development of Breakfast Point, attracts a mixed market, including “empty-nester” households, mature families and younger smaller households. With a greater share of development likely to be higher density apartments, a greater share of young adults living in smaller households is expected over the forecast period.

Housing supply

This process is heightened by the significant differences in the supply of residential development opportunities within the City which will have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to fifteen years. Significant development sites have been identified in Rhodes, North Strathfield-Strathfield and Mortlake-Breakfast Point, while future “brownfield” opportunities are likely in Five Dock-Canada Bay. Areas with rail stations, such as North Strathfield-Strathfield and Concord West are anticipated to undergo intensification of residential stock. Finally, areas such as Abbotsford–Wareemba, Russell Lea-Rodd Point, Drummoyne and Chiswick are expected to grow more moderately with most development coming from infill type developments and intensification around the commercial centres.

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