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Canterbury

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Canterbury is forecast for the period from 2037 to 2041, which is expected to have a net increase of 232 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
CanterburyForecast period
Component2012 to 20162017 to 20212022 to 20262027 to 20312032 to 20362037 to 2041
Births--382388384388407
Deaths--425449477510528
Natural increase/decrease---43-61-93-122-122
Net migration--272125222317354
Change in persons in non-private dwellings--00000

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2018.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2041 forecast population change: 46 2040 forecast population change: 48 2039 forecast population change: 46 2038 forecast population change: 47 2037 forecast population change: 46 2036 forecast population change: 43 2035 forecast population change: 41 2034 forecast population change: 39 2033 forecast population change: 34 2032 forecast population change: 38 2031 forecast population change: 33 2030 forecast population change: 30 2029 forecast population change: 24 2028 forecast population change: 18 2027 forecast population change: 24 2026 forecast population change: 19 2025 forecast population change: 14 2024 forecast population change: 15 2023 forecast population change: 3 2022 forecast population change: 13 2021 forecast population change: 14 2020 forecast population change: 15 2019 forecast population change: 51 2018 forecast population change: 50 2017 forecast population change: 98
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2041 Natural increase: -23 2040 Natural increase: -24 2039 Natural increase: -24 2038 Natural increase: -25 2037 Natural increase: -25 2036 Natural increase: -25 2035 Natural increase: -25 2034 Natural increase: -24 2033 Natural increase: -24 2032 Natural increase: -23 2031 Natural increase: -22 2030 Natural increase: -20 2029 Natural increase: -18 2028 Natural increase: -17 2027 Natural increase: -16 2026 Natural increase: -15 2025 Natural increase: -13 2024 Natural increase: -12 2023 Natural increase: -11 2022 Natural increase: -10 2021 Natural increase: -10 2020 Natural increase: -9 2019 Natural increase: -8 2018 Natural increase: -8 2017 Natural increase: -8 2041 Total deaths: 106 2040 Total deaths: 106 2039 Total deaths: 106 2038 Total deaths: 106 2037 Total deaths: 105 2036 Total deaths: 104 2035 Total deaths: 103 2034 Total deaths: 102 2033 Total deaths: 101 2032 Total deaths: 100 2031 Total deaths: 98 2030 Total deaths: 97 2029 Total deaths: 95 2028 Total deaths: 94 2027 Total deaths: 93 2026 Total deaths: 92 2025 Total deaths: 91 2024 Total deaths: 89 2023 Total deaths: 89 2022 Total deaths: 88 2021 Total deaths: 88 2020 Total deaths: 87 2019 Total deaths: 85 2018 Total deaths: 84 2017 Total deaths: 82 2041 Total births: 83 2040 Total births: 82 2039 Total births: 81 2038 Total births: 80 2037 Total births: 79 2036 Total births: 78 2035 Total births: 78 2034 Total births: 78 2033 Total births: 77 2032 Total births: 77 2031 Total births: 77 2030 Total births: 77 2029 Total births: 77 2028 Total births: 77 2027 Total births: 77 2026 Total births: 77 2025 Total births: 77 2024 Total births: 78 2023 Total births: 78 2022 Total births: 78 2021 Total births: 78 2020 Total births: 77 2019 Total births: 77 2018 Total births: 76 2017 Total births: 74 2041 Natural increase: -23 2040 Natural increase: -24 2039 Natural increase: -24 2038 Natural increase: -25 2037 Natural increase: -25 2036 Natural increase: -25 2035 Natural increase: -25 2034 Natural increase: -24 2033 Natural increase: -24 2032 Natural increase: -23 2031 Natural increase: -22 2030 Natural increase: -20 2029 Natural increase: -18 2028 Natural increase: -17 2027 Natural increase: -16 2026 Natural increase: -15 2025 Natural increase: -13 2024 Natural increase: -12 2023 Natural increase: -11 2022 Natural increase: -10 2021 Natural increase: -10 2020 Natural increase: -9 2019 Natural increase: -8 2018 Natural increase: -8 2017 Natural increase: -8 2041 Total deaths: 106 2040 Total deaths: 106 2039 Total deaths: 106 2038 Total deaths: 106 2037 Total deaths: 105 2036 Total deaths: 104 2035 Total deaths: 103 2034 Total deaths: 102 2033 Total deaths: 101 2032 Total deaths: 100 2031 Total deaths: 98 2030 Total deaths: 97 2029 Total deaths: 95 2028 Total deaths: 94 2027 Total deaths: 93 2026 Total deaths: 92 2025 Total deaths: 91 2024 Total deaths: 89 2023 Total deaths: 89 2022 Total deaths: 88 2021 Total deaths: 88 2020 Total deaths: 87 2019 Total deaths: 85 2018 Total deaths: 84 2017 Total deaths: 82 2041 Total births: 83 2040 Total births: 82 2039 Total births: 81 2038 Total births: 80 2037 Total births: 79 2036 Total births: 78 2035 Total births: 78 2034 Total births: 78 2033 Total births: 77 2032 Total births: 77 2031 Total births: 77 2030 Total births: 77 2029 Total births: 77 2028 Total births: 77 2027 Total births: 77 2026 Total births: 77 2025 Total births: 77 2024 Total births: 78 2023 Total births: 78 2022 Total births: 78 2021 Total births: 78 2020 Total births: 77 2019 Total births: 77 2018 Total births: 76 2017 Total births: 74
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2041 Total net migration: 68 2040 Total net migration: 71 2039 Total net migration: 70 2038 Total net migration: 72 2037 Total net migration: 72 2036 Total net migration: 68 2035 Total net migration: 67 2034 Total net migration: 64 2033 Total net migration: 58 2032 Total net migration: 61 2031 Total net migration: 54 2030 Total net migration: 50 2029 Total net migration: 43 2028 Total net migration: 35 2027 Total net migration: 40 2026 Total net migration: 34 2025 Total net migration: 27 2024 Total net migration: 27 2023 Total net migration: 14 2022 Total net migration: 23 2021 Total net migration: 24 2020 Total net migration: 25 2019 Total net migration: 60 2018 Total net migration: 58 2017 Total net migration: 106 2041 Total out migration: 719 2040 Total out migration: 714 2039 Total out migration: 710 2038 Total out migration: 706 2037 Total out migration: 702 2036 Total out migration: 699 2035 Total out migration: 695 2034 Total out migration: 690 2033 Total out migration: 688 2032 Total out migration: 685 2031 Total out migration: 681 2030 Total out migration: 679 2029 Total out migration: 677 2028 Total out migration: 673 2027 Total out migration: 671 2026 Total out migration: 670 2025 Total out migration: 670 2024 Total out migration: 671 2023 Total out migration: 671 2022 Total out migration: 670 2021 Total out migration: 670 2020 Total out migration: 670 2019 Total out migration: 669 2018 Total out migration: 666 2017 Total out migration: 672 2041 Total in migration: 787 2040 Total in migration: 785 2039 Total in migration: 781 2038 Total in migration: 779 2037 Total in migration: 773 2036 Total in migration: 767 2035 Total in migration: 762 2034 Total in migration: 754 2033 Total in migration: 746 2032 Total in migration: 745 2031 Total in migration: 735 2030 Total in migration: 729 2029 Total in migration: 720 2028 Total in migration: 709 2027 Total in migration: 711 2026 Total in migration: 704 2025 Total in migration: 698 2024 Total in migration: 698 2023 Total in migration: 685 2022 Total in migration: 693 2021 Total in migration: 694 2020 Total in migration: 695 2019 Total in migration: 728 2018 Total in migration: 724 2017 Total in migration: 778 2041 Total net migration: 68 2040 Total net migration: 71 2039 Total net migration: 70 2038 Total net migration: 72 2037 Total net migration: 72 2036 Total net migration: 68 2035 Total net migration: 67 2034 Total net migration: 64 2033 Total net migration: 58 2032 Total net migration: 61 2031 Total net migration: 54 2030 Total net migration: 50 2029 Total net migration: 43 2028 Total net migration: 35 2027 Total net migration: 40 2026 Total net migration: 34 2025 Total net migration: 27 2024 Total net migration: 27 2023 Total net migration: 14 2022 Total net migration: 23 2021 Total net migration: 24 2020 Total net migration: 25 2019 Total net migration: 60 2018 Total net migration: 58 2017 Total net migration: 106 2041 Total out migration: 719 2040 Total out migration: 714 2039 Total out migration: 710 2038 Total out migration: 706 2037 Total out migration: 702 2036 Total out migration: 699 2035 Total out migration: 695 2034 Total out migration: 690 2033 Total out migration: 688 2032 Total out migration: 685 2031 Total out migration: 681 2030 Total out migration: 679 2029 Total out migration: 677 2028 Total out migration: 673 2027 Total out migration: 671 2026 Total out migration: 670 2025 Total out migration: 670 2024 Total out migration: 671 2023 Total out migration: 671 2022 Total out migration: 670 2021 Total out migration: 670 2020 Total out migration: 670 2019 Total out migration: 669 2018 Total out migration: 666 2017 Total out migration: 672 2041 Total in migration: 787 2040 Total in migration: 785 2039 Total in migration: 781 2038 Total in migration: 779 2037 Total in migration: 773 2036 Total in migration: 767 2035 Total in migration: 762 2034 Total in migration: 754 2033 Total in migration: 746 2032 Total in migration: 745 2031 Total in migration: 735 2030 Total in migration: 729 2029 Total in migration: 720 2028 Total in migration: 709 2027 Total in migration: 711 2026 Total in migration: 704 2025 Total in migration: 698 2024 Total in migration: 698 2023 Total in migration: 685 2022 Total in migration: 693 2021 Total in migration: 694 2020 Total in migration: 695 2019 Total in migration: 728 2018 Total in migration: 724 2017 Total in migration: 778
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2018.
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