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Armidale Regional CouncilPopulation forecast

Armidale Regional Council

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Armidale Regional Council indicate a 7.0% increase in population under working age, a 12.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 4.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Armidale Regional Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Armidale Regional Council - Total persons202120312046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,6145.51,7895.71,7525.4+139
5 to 91,8066.21,9056.11,8905.8+84
10 to 141,9776.72,0836.72,1496.6+172
15 to 192,3858.12,6738.62,7268.4+341
20 to 242,3678.12,4777.92,5527.8+185
25 to 292,0176.91,8285.91,8655.7-152
30 to 341,8246.21,7935.71,7605.4-65
35 to 391,7205.91,9796.31,8845.8+163
40 to 441,4715.02,0016.42,0106.2+539
45 to 491,5885.41,8646.02,0356.2+447
50 to 541,6325.61,6395.21,9806.1+348
55 to 591,8606.31,6325.21,8815.8+21
60 to 641,7225.91,5464.91,7155.3-7
65 to 691,4635.01,6015.11,5334.7+71
70 to 741,3564.61,4614.71,4414.4+85
75 to 791,1053.81,1823.81,2513.8+146
80 to 847652.69333.01,0733.3+308
85 and over6882.38592.71,0713.3+383
Total persons29,359100.031,242100.032,567100.0+3,208
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Armidale Regional Council was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 530 and account for 6.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 2,673 persons.

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