Development history

The City of Perth is the primary commercial, cultural and transport hub for the greater Perth metropolitan area. European settlement dates back to 1829 when the Swan River colony was established. The City developed slowly from its colonial beginnings, but growth was stimulated by the discovery of gold further inland towards the end of the nineteenth century. Growth in the post WW2 era has been further spurred by the resources sector and the wealth created over many decades.

Like other Australian cities, the original settlement contained a variety of land uses, but as the urban area expanded outwards the City developed as a key industrial and commercial centre. Residential functions declined in importance as people moved to the suburbs, and this resulted in population decline over much of the twentieth century. This pattern has reversed since the 1990s, starting with the redevelopment of former industrial areas in Claisebrook into housing and, more recently, construction of high-rise apartments in the CBD and West Perth. The speed of growth and change is largely due to the attraction of central Perth for employment, education and lifestyle opportunities. These factors, as well as the nature of the dwelling stock (typically one and two-bedroom apartments), are especially attractive to young adults seeking rental accommodation in an inner city location.

Migration patterns

The movement of young adults in and out of the City dominates the migration profile. Similar to other Australian cities, inner city living is increasingly popular, and this has created demand for housing in close proximity to employment centres and tertiary education institutions. In recent years the mining boom has also played a role in this increasing demand for inner city housing.

The City gains population from parts of suburban Perth, as well as interstate and overseas. The City loses population to neighbouring councils, particularly to neighbouring suburbs with similar attractors to CBD living. There is also a loss of young families to suburban Perth, which suggests that young adults will move out of the area once they wish to form a family. There is some evidence of in-migration of older couples and single people, but the data do not suggest a significant trend of empty nesters trading in their suburban home for an inner-city apartment.

During the COVID pandemic, Western Australia did not experience lockdowns and restrictions unlike other states; however, the closure of intermational borders has had some impact on the City of Perth. Although the City experienced a small net gain in overseas migrants, much of this happened prior to 2020 and the closure of borders. Subsequent to the closure of international travel, many international students and temporary visa holders returned overseas; these groups represent a significant proportion of the City’s population. The comparison of earlier forecasts to the Census results demonstrate a much lower than expected number of 18-24 year olds as at 2021. It is expected that overseas students and temporary visa holders will return to Australia and the City of Perth now that international travel has restarted.

Historical migration flows, City of Perth, 2016-2021

Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2024.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

Young adults are the main driver of population change in the City, and this trend is assumed to continue into the future. Not only is the City the major commercial and employment hub in metropolitan Perth, but it is also strategically located in terms of access to universities, and to a lesser extent, the airport. These act as pull factors for young renting households - both students and young professionals. Residential construction in the City consists of high-density apartments primarily with one or two bedrooms, which are more suitable for and attractive to younger, smaller households.

Housing supply

Approximately 10,500 dwellings have been assumed over the forecast period (2021-2041). Significant residential supply has been identified on specific sites such as CityLink, Elizabeth Quay and the Riverside Precinct, we expect demand is likely to start to pick of following the recovery after the covid-19 crisis and return to overseas migration to Australia. Following a significant drop in demand post-mining boom across the wider metropolitan area, City of Perth had nonetheless recorded positive growth in housing approvals, increasing in the post-2016 period as the State’s economy recovered and housing demand began to pick up.

The modelling has assumed that approvals for new housing approvals from around 2020-2025 will fall to similar levels experienced over the 2013-16 period, before undergoing a similar recovery to that experienced around 2017-2019.

It has also been assumed that there will be a fall in overseas students over the 2020-2023 period, particularly affecting particularly Crawley and Nedlands, and suppressing the commencement and subsequent rate of development in West Perth. Student accommodation that is under construction is assumed to complete, but it is forecast that construction of student housing will be very limited in the medium term.