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Cessnock City CouncilPopulation forecast

Cessnock CBD - Aberdare - South Cessnock - Kearlsey

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Cessnock CBD - Aberdare - South Cessnock - Kearlsey is forecast to grow from 2,604 in 2021 to 4,207 in 2046, with the average household size falling from 2.44 to 2.30 by 2046.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Cessnock City Council. The period 2021 to 2031, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Cessnock CBD - Aberdare - South Cessnock - KearlseyForecast year
Summary202120262031203620412046
Population5,8636,4916,3616,3957,4848,804
Change in population (5yrs)--628-131351,0891,320
Average annual change--2.06%-0.41%0.11%3.19%3.30%
Households2,3862,5272,5722,6783,1973,794
Average household size2.442.552.462.372.322.30
Population in non private dwellings353844547884
Dwellings2,6042,6242,6372,8033,5044,207
Dwelling occupancy rate91.6396.3097.5495.5491.2490.18
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), April 2024.

Key findings

In 2021, the total population of Cessnock CBD - Aberdare - South Cessnock - Kearlsey was estimated to be 5,863 people. It is expected to increase by over 498 people to 6,361 by 2031, at an average annual growth rate of 0.82%. This is based on an increase of over 186 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household rising from 2.44 to 2.46 by 2031.

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