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Blacktown City CouncilPopulation forecast

The Ponds

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for The Ponds indicate a 17.9% decrease in population under working age, a 1.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 24.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Blacktown City Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
The Ponds - Total persons202120312046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1,3388.01,1716.31,1636.2-175
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)2,67815.92,05211.11,94810.4-730
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)1,71710.21,8119.81,5658.4-151
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)9895.91,86010.01,6368.8+647
Young workforce (25 to 34)1,5489.22,24412.12,27112.2+724
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)5,42932.35,42329.35,20327.8-226
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)1,3047.82,01410.92,23712.0+932
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)8895.39785.31,4097.5+521
Seniors (70 to 84)7864.78264.59655.2+179
Elderly aged (85 and over)1450.91550.82851.5+141
Total persons16,821100.018,535100.018,682100.0+1,862
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), April 2024.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in The Ponds was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 32.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24), which is expected to increase by 871 and account for 10.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 5,423 persons.

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