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City of YarraPopulation forecast

City of Yarra

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for City of Yarra indicate a 34.4% increase in population under working age, a 35.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 17.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Yarra is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Yarra - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,7494.16,2665.77,6965.2+3,947
5 to 93,1543.43,6313.35,7703.9+2,616
10 to 142,8713.13,2362.94,7453.2+1,874
15 to 192,6252.93,6243.34,8433.2+2,218
20 to 246,9397.68,6417.810,8697.3+3,930
25 to 2914,29715.614,35413.017,96212.0+3,665
30 to 3413,31814.514,87913.417,55811.8+4,240
35 to 398,9079.712,09810.914,6279.8+5,720
40 to 446,4177.08,6957.812,0508.1+5,633
45 to 495,2515.76,3225.710,2236.9+4,972
50 to 545,0105.55,1324.68,4285.7+3,418
55 to 594,5134.95,0764.66,9454.7+2,432
60 to 643,9744.34,6004.25,7743.9+1,800
65 to 693,2243.54,0023.65,0633.4+1,839
70 to 742,8963.23,2222.94,7203.2+1,824
75 to 791,9112.12,8642.64,1942.8+2,283
80 to 841,2371.41,9381.73,4782.3+2,241
85 and over1,2501.42,1922.04,1922.8+2,942
Total persons91,543100.0110,774100.0149,137100.0+57,594
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Yarra was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 15.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 3,191 and account for 10.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 14,879 persons.

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