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City of YarraPopulation forecast

City of Yarra

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for the City of Yarra indicate a 31.2% increase in population under working age, a 53.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 22.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Yarra is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Yarra - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,4644.85,7904.97,3724.7+2,908
5 to 93,3903.64,3943.75,5383.5+2,148
10 to 142,6672.93,6163.14,6052.9+1,938
15 to 192,9233.14,6123.95,9793.8+3,056
20 to 247,9738.510,6169.013,7818.7+5,808
25 to 2915,53016.617,03814.422,27914.1+6,749
30 to 3413,12314.115,16612.819,91712.6+6,794
35 to 398,4709.110,7329.113,9058.8+5,435
40 to 446,3096.87,8496.610,2596.5+3,950
45 to 495,5606.06,6785.68,7645.6+3,204
50 to 544,8565.26,2025.28,1305.2+3,274
55 to 594,5044.85,7754.97,5234.8+3,019
60 to 643,8504.15,0334.26,7244.3+2,874
65 to 693,3983.64,3713.75,9173.8+2,519
70 to 742,3482.53,6553.15,2153.3+2,867
75 to 791,6611.83,0142.54,4472.8+2,786
80 to 841,2161.31,9621.73,4662.2+2,250
85 and over1,1101.21,9381.63,7862.4+2,675
Total persons93,353100.0118,443100.0157,607100.0+64,255
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), August 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Yarra was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 16.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 2,643 and account for 9.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 17,038 persons.

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