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Yarra Ranges CouncilPopulation forecast

Yarra Ranges Council

Drivers of population change

The Yarra Ranges Council area is located 30 and 110 kilometres east of the Melbourne CBD. The Council area encompasses a total land area of almost 2,500 square kilometres and is comprised of suburban areas, townships, rural land and native forests. The western section of the Council area includes the urban fringe of Melbourne, the central sections of the Council area comprises the foothills of the Yarra Ranges and is home to numerous townships. The eastern half of Yarra Ranges contains mostly rural land and native forest while smaller townships are scattered throughout.

Development history

Settlement in the Yarra Ranges Council area dates from the 1850s and 1860s as several small townships were established spurred by gold discoveries in the northern and eastern areas of the Council area. Early industries included forestry and grazing with the establishment of orchards and nurseries occurring in the 1880s and 1890s. Development of the area increased with the completion of the railway lines to Lilydale and Belgrave and continued steadily with significant development in the post-war years. The most rapid growth occurred during the 1970s and 1980s leading to the increased suburbanisation of the western areas of the Council area, where significant growth occurred in permanent dwellings, leading to substantial increases in the population of the area.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the Yarra Ranges Council area has played in the post war period has been to provide home owning opportunities for two distinct markets - young family households and retirees, with the overwhelming demand from metropolitan Melbourne. There is continued demand for residential development within the Council area, catering for both people moving from other parts of Melbourne and also new households being formed from within the existing population of the Yarra Ranges Council area. Future population growth will be concentrated primarily in the western part of the Council - Lilydale, Mooroolbark, and Kilsyth - largely driven by densification of existing residential lots and the redevelopment of a former quarry in Lilydale. However, land limitations are likely to restrict future population growth in the Council area more broadly.

Historical migration flows, Yarra Ranges Council, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

With the variety of residential areas, natural characteristics and period of development, different areas within the Yarra Ranges Council area have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas around activity centres tend to attract and retain a higher proportion of families and young people, areas such as Mooroolbark and Lilydale. These are quite heavily invested in medium density housing, which supports their attractiveness for renters and home-buyers alike. Lilydale is also home to a higher proportion of the Council’s elderly, as is Kilsyth and even more so Montrose and Healesville and surrounds. These areas are heavily supported by existing aged care facilites, with more planned. By contrast, Coldstream - Yering and Launching Place - Don Valley - Woori Yallock support a higher proportion of children than the LGA average and a lower proportion of its elderly. In keeping with their regional setting, these areas are overwhelmingly dominated by low density housing on generous lots, traditionally supporting a larger household size. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the Yarra Ranges Council area means that population outcomes differ significantly across the Council area.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of future residential land within the Council area which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next twenty-five years. Development opportunities continue to be present in the designated activity centres of Lilydale, Chirnside Park, Kilsyth and Mooroolbark, which will generally take the form of medium density development, with some higher density in central Lilydale. Lilydale’s former quarry, the new Kinley Estate, is the largest upcoming residential development in the Yarra Ranges. On the other hand, Mount Dandenong - Olinda, Upwey - Tecoma, Wandin - Seville, and Warburton - Upper Yarra Valley are expected to slowly begin losing population as they experience natural ageing coupled with minimal residential development.

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