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City of WyndhamPopulation forecast

Tarneit - Oakbank Riverdale

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Tarneit - Oakbank Riverdale indicate a 162.7% increase in population under working age, a 224.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 155.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Wyndham is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Tarneit - Oakbank Riverdale - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,82114.04,51213.410,70510.8+8,884
5 to 91,34810.33,61710.710,41710.5+9,069
10 to 147786.02,2396.68,4408.5+7,662
15 to 193903.01,5284.56,2176.2+5,827
20 to 248816.82,0166.05,2445.3+4,363
25 to 291,44411.13,45810.26,8876.9+5,443
30 to 342,25117.35,04214.910,73610.8+8,485
35 to 392,02015.54,77814.212,34012.4+10,320
40 to 448976.92,9158.69,97710.0+9,080
45 to 493822.91,3163.96,8446.9+6,462
50 to 542441.97112.14,3504.4+4,106
55 to 591961.55021.52,7082.7+2,513
60 to 641491.13641.11,6511.7+1,501
65 to 691180.92730.81,1051.1+987
70 to 74630.51570.57290.7+665
75 to 79390.31050.34680.5+429
80 to 84110.1970.33450.3+334
85 and over20.01230.43510.4+349
Total persons13,037100.033,755100.099,516100.0+86,479
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Tarneit - Oakbank Riverdale was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 17.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 2,791 and account for 14.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 5,042 persons.

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