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City of WyndhamPopulation forecast

Tarneit (locality)

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Tarneit (locality) indicate a 38.9% increase in males under working age, a 106.5% increase in males of retirement age, and a 42.2% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Wyndham is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Tarneit (locality) - Total males202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,92711.74,06311.37,00510.1+4,078
5 to 92,67010.73,60410.16,7969.8+4,126
10 to 141,9277.72,7837.85,6608.2+3,733
15 to 191,2284.92,1215.94,4756.5+3,247
20 to 241,8347.32,2856.44,1596.0+2,325
25 to 292,1858.72,9658.34,6666.8+2,481
30 to 342,81011.24,01911.26,6059.6+3,795
35 to 393,54714.14,36712.27,95211.5+4,406
40 to 442,3419.33,59110.06,7739.8+4,432
45 to 491,2635.02,1766.14,8977.1+3,634
50 to 547803.11,1963.33,2844.8+2,504
55 to 595582.27862.22,2883.3+1,730
60 to 643721.55471.51,4582.1+1,085
65 to 693061.24011.19511.4+645
70 to 741580.63220.96671.0+509
75 to 79860.32290.65260.8+440
80 to 84560.21620.54290.6+373
85 and over240.11870.54460.6+422
Total persons25,071100.035,806100.069,037100.0+43,965
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for males in Tarneit (locality) was ages 35 to 39, which accounted for 14.1% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 1,251 and account for 10.0% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2026 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 4,367 males.

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