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Willoughby City CouncilPopulation forecast

Willoughby City Council

Drivers of population change

Development history

Willoughby City is a residential, commercial and industrial LGA in northern Sydney, with the main centre at Chatswood, 10 kilometres north of the Sydney GPO. The City features a large residential population as well as significant employment areas based at Artarmon, St Leonards and Chatswood. The Chatswood CBD is one of the major employment foci for Sydney's north.

While early urban development in Willoughby dates from the 1800s, the most significant period of development was the inter-war period, with the population of the City increasing to just under 52,000 by 1947. There was continued moderate growth during the 1950s and early 1960s with the population increasing to just under 55,000 by 1966. By the mid 1960s, the City’s residential spread was complete and the population stagnated thereafter and began to fall moderately during the 1970s and 1980s. Since 1991, however, the population has increased significantly from just over 51,000 persons to more than 65,000 by 2006. The increase in recent years has been driven by significant apartment construction in the Chatswood CBD and St Leonards, as well as intensification of existing residential areas, most notably in Chatswood, Artarmon and Naremburn.

Migration patterns

In the Census period (2011-2016), significant migration came from overseas and areas to the south of Willoughby, while outflows occurred to nearby northern LGAs and South East Queensland.

However in the most recent inter-censual period (2016-2021), the City has been affected by the impact of COVID-19, especially in the those areas of the City with large numbers of tertiary students, particularly overseas students. In total, owing to the pandemic, Willoughby has seen a net loss of persons to overseas migration. This is assumed to be a short-term effect caused by NSW’s lock-down and the closure of international borders, and that the migration patterns experienced prior to the pandemic will return over the next year now that those restrictions have been removed. In particular it is expected that there will be a return to the large levels of overseas in-migration experienced prior to the pandemic. This will also see a return to high levels of housing demand.

Historical migration flows, Willoughby City Council, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

The primary housing market role that the City has played in the post war era has been to provide housing for families. This role continues to some extent, although most areas are no longer affordable for young families and a number of areas attract predominantly young singles and couples due to the higher density housing stock. Proximity to main transport hubs, "employment-rich" areas and education services also make many central parts of Willoughby City attractive to young (18-24 year old) lone persons and young couples without children. The role of overseas migration as a major driver of population growth has been established for many years and other areas to the south of Willoughby also provide impetus for growth, this is described in more detail in the above ‘Migration Patterns’ section. By contrast, areas to the north and west attract many young couples and families seeking more affordable home-buying opportunities. They also attract 'empty-nesters' and retirees who benefit financially from housing equity in the City. Like most parts of Sydney, Willoughby loses population in net terms to Queensland in the latest Census period.

Housing supply

Within Willoughby City, areas have developed and will continue to evolve different roles within the housing market. Variations occur due to when areas were settled, the range of land uses in the area, developer interest and the varying planning policies in play. St Leonards, Chatswood (CBD), Chatswood (Balance), Artarmon and Naremburn tend to attract people in their late teens and early twenties due to the proximity to rail transport and other services, as well as the higher share of rental stock (apartments). Castle Cove - Middle Cove, Castlecrag, Chatswood West - Lane Cove North, Northbridge and Roseville continue to attract established and mature families. These areas also have very restricted development opportunities therefore growth dynamics seen in other parts of the City do not apply here and demographic concepts such as suburban regeneration and the suburban life cycle play a part in how these areas will change during the forecast period. Willoughby and North Willoughby - Willoughby East tend to attract young professional couples and singles without children. With a greater share of development in areas that attract young people, a greater share of young adults would be expected in the future.

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. A number of major development opportunities have materialised prior to the 2011 Census (e.g. most of ‘Pacific Place’ in the Chatswood CBD), some large developments commence in the first few years of the forecast and more have been identified in the short and medium term, notably in Chatswood (CBD) where increasing development has occurred close to existing centres and train stations (such as the Chatswood Interchange development) and to a lesser extent Chatswood (Balance), St Leonards, Willoughby and Artarmon. By comparison, Castlecrag, Castle Cove - Middle Cove and North Willoughby - Willoughby East are expected to have relatively minimal dwelling growth over the next 25 years.

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