City of WhitehorsePopulation forecast
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Blackburn South

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Blackburn South is 'Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Whitehorse is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Blackburn South - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)6776.06435.56485.5-29
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)1,0309.29808.49878.3-43
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)8197.38937.78967.6+77
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)9058.11,0218.81,0088.5+103
Young workforce (25 to 34)1,31711.71,31811.31,33111.3+14
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)2,30220.52,18818.82,20118.6-101
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)1,31511.71,40612.11,40511.9+90
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)1,0709.51,24710.71,25410.6+184
Seniors (70 to 84)1,30311.61,40012.01,51512.8+212
Elderly aged (85 and over)4914.45614.85794.9+88
Total persons11,229100.011,655100.011,824100.0+595

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2019.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 579 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2041: 1,515 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2041: 1,254 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2041: 1,405 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2041: 2,201 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2041: 1,331 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2041: 1,008 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2041: 896 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2041: 987 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 648 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031: 561 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2031: 1,400 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2031: 1,247 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2031: 1,406 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2031: 2,188 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2031: 1,318 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2031: 1,021 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2031: 893 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2031: 980 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031: 643 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 491 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 1,303 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 1,070 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 1,315 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 2,302 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 1,317 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 905 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 819 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 1,030 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 677
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031 to 2041: 18 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2031 to 2041: 116 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2031 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2031 to 2041: -1 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2031 to 2041: 13 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2031 to 2041: 14 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2031 to 2041: -12 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2031 to 2041: 3 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2031 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031 to 2041: 5 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2031: 70 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2031: 97 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2031: 177 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2031: 91 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2031: -114 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2031: 1 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2031: 116 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2031: 74 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2031: -50 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2031: -34
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2019.

Key findings

In Blackburn South between 2016 and 2031, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to decrease by 10 (0.4%), and will comprise 21.6% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 344 (12.0%) and comprise 27.5% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2031 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 2,188 persons.

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