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City of WhitehorsePopulation forecast

Blackburn South

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Blackburn South indicate a 4.9% decrease in population under working age, a 12.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 4.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Blackburn South is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Blackburn South - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)6776.06435.56485.5-29
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)1,0309.29808.49878.3-43
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)8197.38937.78967.6+77
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)9058.11,0218.81,0088.5+103
Young workforce (25 to 34)1,31711.71,31811.31,33111.3+14
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)2,30220.52,18818.82,20118.6-101
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)1,31511.71,40612.11,40511.9+90
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)1,0709.51,24710.71,25410.6+184
Seniors (70 to 84)1,30311.61,40012.01,51512.8+212
Elderly aged (85 and over)4914.45614.85794.9+88
Total persons11,229100.011,655100.011,824100.0+595
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Blackburn South was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 20.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69), which is expected to increase by 177 and account for 10.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 2,188 persons.

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