Warrnambool CityPopulation forecast
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Warrnambool (South - Merrivale)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warrnambool City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1825.22316.02516.0+70
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)2848.13609.33909.3+106
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2858.13168.23628.6+77
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)35310.13559.24039.6+51
Young workforce (25 to 34)46113.242110.945310.8-8
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)65718.870818.376918.3+112
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)51014.646011.947411.3-36
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)49214.143011.14099.8-83
Seniors (70 to 84)2326.652913.757413.7+342
Elderly aged (85 and over)441.3511.31072.5+62
Total persons3,499100.03,862100.04,192100.0+693

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 107 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2036: 574 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2036: 409 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2036: 474 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2036: 769 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2036: 453 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2036: 403 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2036: 362 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2036: 390 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 251 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026: 529 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026: 430 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026: 460 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026: 708 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026: 421 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026: 355 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026: 316 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026: 360 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 231 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 44 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016: 232 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016: 492 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016: 510 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016: 657 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016: 461 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016: 353 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016: 285 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016: 284 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 182
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 56 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2026 to 2036: 45 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2026 to 2036: -21 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2026 to 2036: 14 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2026 to 2036: 61 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2026 to 2036: 32 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2026 to 2036: 48 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2026 to 2036: 45 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2026 to 2036: 30 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 20 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 6 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2016 to 2026: 297 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2016 to 2026: -62 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2016 to 2026: -50 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2016 to 2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2016 to 2026: -40 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2016 to 2026: 3 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2016 to 2026: 31 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2016 to 2026: 76 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 49
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) between 2016 and 2026, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to increase by 156 (20.8%), and will comprise 23.5% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 242 (31.5%) and comprise 26.1% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2026 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 708 persons.

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