Warrnambool CityPopulation forecast
Skip to content

Warrnambool (South - Merrivale)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) indicate a 21.3% increase in population under working age, a 52.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.7% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warrnambool City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41825.22316.02516.0+70
5 to 92156.12506.52736.5+58
10 to 142186.22656.92987.1+80
15 to 192457.02707.03017.2+55
20 to 242447.02476.42846.8+39
25 to 292627.52225.72415.8-20
30 to 341995.72005.22125.1+13
35 to 391735.02265.92325.5+59
40 to 442396.82416.22606.2+21
45 to 492447.02416.22776.6+32
50 to 542577.32476.42576.10
55 to 592537.22125.52175.2-36
60 to 642457.02145.62135.1-33
65 to 692467.02155.61964.7-50
70 to 741283.72155.62024.8+73
75 to 79702.02055.32034.8+133
80 to 84331.01092.81694.0+136
85 and over441.3511.31072.5+62
Total persons3,499100.03,862100.04,192100.0+693

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 107 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 169 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 203 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 202 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 196 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 213 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 217 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 257 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 277 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 260 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 232 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 212 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 241 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 284 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 301 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 298 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 273 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 251 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 109 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 205 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 215 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 215 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 214 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 212 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 247 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 241 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 241 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 226 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 200 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 222 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 247 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 270 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 265 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 250 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 231 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 44 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 33 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 70 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 128 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 246 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 245 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 253 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 257 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 244 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 239 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 173 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 199 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 262 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 244 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 245 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 218 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 215 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 182
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 56 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 60 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: -3 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: -13 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: -19 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -2 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 5 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 9 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 36 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 18 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 6 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 12 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 20 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 37 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 31 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 33 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 23 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 20 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 6 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 75 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 135 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 86 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: -31 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: -31 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -41 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -9 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -4 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 2 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 53 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 1 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -40 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 3 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 24 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 47 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 36 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 49
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 135 and account for 5.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 270 persons.

v19.07.26-1.0.1