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Warrnambool CityPopulation forecast

Warrnambool (South - Merrivale)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) indicate a 26.8% increase in population under working age, a 31.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1825.22316.02516.0+70
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)2848.13609.33909.3+106
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2858.13168.23628.6+77
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)35310.13559.24039.6+51
Young workforce (25 to 34)46113.242110.945310.8-8
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)65718.870818.376918.3+112
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)51014.646011.947411.3-36
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)49214.143011.14099.8-83
Seniors (70 to 84)2326.652913.757413.7+342
Elderly aged (85 and over)441.3511.31072.5+62
Total persons3,499100.03,862100.04,192100.0+693
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warrnambool (South - Merrivale) was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 18.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 297 and account for 13.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 708 persons.

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