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Warrnambool CityPopulation forecast

Warrnambool (West)

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warrnambool (West) indicate a 22.0% increase in population under working age, a 27.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.3% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warrnambool (West) is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warrnambool (West) - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42856.03216.33286.2+42
5 to 92866.03366.63386.4+53
10 to 142425.13356.63546.7+113
15 to 193317.03506.93797.1+48
20 to 243547.53326.53797.1+25
25 to 293888.23206.33316.2-57
30 to 342936.23035.93035.7+10
35 to 392785.93086.02985.6+20
40 to 442405.02925.73025.7+63
45 to 492896.13005.93095.8+20
50 to 542595.52545.02855.4+26
55 to 593126.62675.22725.1-40
60 to 642896.12374.62304.3-59
65 to 692615.52745.42444.6-17
70 to 742224.72745.42464.6+24
75 to 791703.62605.12775.2+108
80 to 841202.51953.82344.4+115
85 and over1272.71472.91883.6+61
Total persons4,744100.05,102100.05,297100.0+552
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warrnambool (West) was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 93 and account for 6.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 350 persons.

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