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Warrnambool CityPopulation forecast

Warrnambool City

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warrnambool City indicate a 25.2% increase in population under working age, a 29.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 12.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Warrnambool City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warrnambool City - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,0856.12,6796.63,0536.6+968
5 to 92,1966.42,6966.73,0846.7+888
10 to 142,0806.12,5876.43,0636.6+983
15 to 192,2866.72,5796.42,9936.5+707
20 to 242,3556.92,5046.22,8796.2+524
25 to 292,3156.82,4266.02,6885.8+373
30 to 341,9845.82,4566.12,7245.9+740
35 to 391,9395.72,5226.32,8256.1+886
40 to 442,0696.02,4456.12,8496.2+779
45 to 492,2516.62,3615.92,8076.1+556
50 to 542,2076.42,3435.82,6875.8+480
55 to 592,1826.42,3825.92,5715.6+389
60 to 642,0325.92,2595.62,4545.3+422
65 to 691,8935.52,1475.32,3845.2+491
70 to 741,4514.21,9204.82,1764.7+725
75 to 791,0983.21,6604.11,9154.1+817
80 to 848572.51,1812.91,5213.3+663
85 and over9642.81,1752.91,5373.3+573
Total persons34,243100.040,323100.046,209100.0+11,966
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warrnambool City was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 6.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 595 and account for 6.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 2,696 persons.

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