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City of VincentPopulation forecast

Impact of COVID-19 on population growth

COVID-19 is a significant health crisis which has resulted in major social and economic disruption across the world. In Australia, the closure of borders (both external and internal) will have impacts on the size and distribution of future population growth. At a local level, the impacts on population growth and demographics outcomes will be felt differently.

.id developed population forecasts for City of Vincent in September 2017. These forecasts do not consider potential impacts to assumptions stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.

In order to further understand how COVID-19 may impact population growth within City of Vincent, we have developed a COVID-19 impact assessment. This assessment is based upon our understanding of typologies (i.e. the characteristics, roles and functions of communities). It demonstrates how these influences may play out across a range of variables, at a localised level. These include:

  • Migration - who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area.
  • Natural increase - impacts on the forecast numbers of births or deaths.
  • Economic resilience - availability of jobs.
  • Resident vulnerability - unmet social and economic needs.
  • Local amenity - factors that make an area a more enjoyable place to live.
The assessment draws on data from across our .id tools: forecast.id, profile.id, atlas.id and economy.id (including the COVID-19 economic forecasts developed and recently updated by NIEIR). We will continue to refine and update this impact assessment as more information becomes available.

Characteristics of inner city areas

City of Vincent is one of six local government areas in Australia that can be classified as an inner city area.

Typical characteristics of inner city areas include:

  • urban areas surrounding Central Business Districts (CBD);
  • housing is predominantly medium and higher density dwellings;
  • detached housing is predominantly pre-war, many with heritage values;
  • relatively high levels of households are rented (private and social housing);
  • contains major public transport infrastructure;
  • contains a wide range of retail, services and employment, generally in ‘strips’ along transport corridors;
  • contains a mix of uses including small scale manufacturing and light industrial uses;
  • attracts large numbers of young adult residents drawn by proximity to education, entertainment and employment opportunities;
  • in close proximity to universities with a high share residents attending university;
  • has and/or is experiencing urban regeneration; and
  • housing is generally more expensive compared to other metropolitan areas.

Potential impacts on inner city areas

Based on our understanding of the characteristics of inner city areas, we consider the following to be likely impacts on population growth. These insights are not necessarily specific to the City of Vincent, but reflect challenges and opportunities for this type of place.


Overseas migration

    Short to medium term impact from the shock to net overseas migration will be significant, as direct overseas migration contributes 140% of all people moving into or leaving inner city areas. Whereas people moving out to other areas in Australia account for -40% of total inner city net migration.


    Severe impact on future international student residents. The impact on the number of new international students will be severe nationally. COVID-19 will have some of the largest impacts on inner city areas which are close to large universities and are home to large numbers of international students.

Internal migration

    Interstate migration Due to border closures and economic uncertainty, inner city areas which typically experience net out-migration to other States will retain more residents, while areas which typically experience net in-migration will not gain as many new residents.


    Intrastate migration inner city areas typically lose large numbers of residents to other areas within the same state, particularly to suburban and growth areas, as residents move into a family making stage. Historic levels of net out-migration could continue under COVID-19, as suburban and growth areas will continue to be attractive places to live.

Natural increase

    Births are likely to be fewer in the short-term as fertility typically declines in times of economic uncertainty. Inner city areas tend to have lower levels of fertility, and will be impacted less severely than other areas.


    Deaths caused by COVID-19 are currently at very low levels. This is due to low overall case numbers, however, the number of deaths could increase in inner city areas if outbreaks were seen in areas with relatively large numbers of vulnerable elderly residents.


Economic resilience

    Access to a range of metropolitan jobs, including higher-order service jobs will continue to be one of the most important drivers of population change and inner city residents have typically enjoyed excellent access to a range of higher-order jobs. The short term COVID-19 impacts on employed residents in inner city areas are significant, particularly in Melbourne where a second ‘lockdown’ as a result of a second COVID-19 outbreak is being enforced.


    Jobs which are located within inner city areas will be negatively impacted by the economic shock caused by COVID-19. Inner city areas which contain larger employment centres, and with a greater share of higher order services jobs, will be affected more in the short-medium term than other areas.

Resident vulnerability

    COVID-19 will increase the likelihood of housing relocation among households who are already vulnerable due to factors such as, unemployment or insecure work, low income, and rental or mortgage stress. How this plays out in most inner city areas will be subtle and dependent on a number of factors including a greater likelihood of housing relocation among younger residents, who are currently spending a large proportion of income on rent, and who have recently become unemployed or joined JobKeeper.


    Moving house could affect household formation in several ways including: younger residents moving back home with their parents, elderly residents moving in with their children (as dependants), formation of group households and other larger households to share housing costs.

Local amenity

    Access to quality open space and natural environment. Generally inner city areas do not have as much access to natural environment, such as beaches, mountains or parks, compared to other areas. This means that some residents may be attracted to other areas with more features.


    Quality health, education, transport, sporting and cultural infrastructure. Inner city areas with these attributes however, will have higher levels of other amenity, which are attractive to new residents.


City of Vincent

Migration

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Net migration explains who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area. It is therefore an excellent way of understanding housing markets and how the role and function of an area may be affected by COVID-19. Changes to migration may disproportionately affect industries such as the education sector due to their reliance on overseas migration.

Migration
DescriptionCity of VincentGreater PerthPotential impact
Overseas migration
Share of residents born overseas34.5%36.0%Negative impact
Overseas migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016)102.0%96.9%Negative impact
Interstate migration
Interstate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016)-3.9%-0.2%Negligible impact
Intrastate migration
Intrastate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016)1.9%3.2%Negligible impact
International student impacts
Residents attending university7.0%5.1%Negative impact
Residents attending TAFE2.2%2.0%Some negative impact

Natural increase

The size of the population increases through births and decline through deaths. The number of forecast births is an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the fertility rate. The share of residents aged 70+ years provides an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the mortality rate due to COVID-19.

Natural increase
DescriptionCity of VincentGreater PerthPotential impact
Natural increase
Natural increase share of forecast population growth (2020 to 2024)55.7%43.4%Some negative impact
Mortality
Share of residents aged 70+ years (2020)6.9%10.1%Low exposure

Economic vulnerability

Economic vulnerability is an indicator of the degree to which COVID-19 may negatively impact the employment prospects of local residents. Communities with high gross regional product decline and/or high levels of local jobs declining are more likely to experience lower levels of population growth. Additionally, economies with scale and diversification may be more likely to retain, and/or attract residents relative to other areas.

Economic vulnerability
DescriptionCity of VincentGreater PerthPotential impact
Economic output
Gross regional product change-3.8%-13.5%Some negative impact
Local job impacts
Local job change-5.8%-8.8%Some negative impact
Local job change (including JobKeeper recipients)-6.3%-14.4%Some negative impact
Employed resident impacts
Employed resident change-9.1%-8.8%Some negative impact
Employed resident change (including JobKeeper recipients)-9.2%-14.4%Some negative impact
Share of residents who work in LGA15.9%--

Note: Impacts refer to September Quarter 2020 compared to September Quarter 2019

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.0 (September 2020). ©2020 Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts.

Resident vulnerability

This indicator identifies communities with a high proportion of residents who have unmet social and economic needs (housing, income, education etc.) Due to COVID-19, these communities, particularly those with a younger, more mobile population, are expected to experience a greater change in how or where residents live (i.e. younger residents moving back home with their parents, formation of group households to share costs or leaving the area in search of employment opportunities elsewhere).

Resident vulnerability
DescriptionCity of VincentGreater PerthPotential impact
Socioeconomic vulnerability
SEIFA Rank (Disadvantage)1,0691,026Some positive impact
Disengaged youth of 15-24 year olds6.5%9.4%Some negative impact
Share of low income households15.0%15.7%Some negative impact
Housing vulnerability
Share of households under housing stress8.8%10.7%Some negative impact
Mortgage vulnerability
Share of households owned with mortgage29.7%40.0%Low exposure
Share of households under mortgage stress4.5%9.0%Negligible impact
Rental vulnerability
Share of households privately rented34.2%22.0%Exposed
Share of households under rental stress19.6%28.0%Some negative impact
Residential mobility
Share population of 18-39 year olds43.6%32.3%Exposed

Local amenity

Local amenity considers the amenity a region provides its residents, with a particular focus on access to affordable housing and access to lifestyle opportunities. It is an indicator of the livability of an area, in the context of COVID-19.

Local amenity
DescriptionCity of VincentGreater PerthPotential impact
Housing Affordability
Housing Median Value$848,000$502,000Negative impact
Unit Median Value$423,000$365,000Some negative impact

Data updates

This page shows the latest version of how COVID-19 may impact population growth for City of Vincent. As new information becomes available (e.g. data revisions, additional data sets of relevance) updates will be applied.

Recent updates include:

  • 7 October 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.1 (September 2020). NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.
  • 25 September 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.0 (September 2020).

Given the dynamic nature of COVID-19, revisions will be made to our population forecasts once sufficient data is available.

Disclaimer

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