City of Tea Tree GullyPopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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City of Tea Tree Gully

Drivers of population change

The City of Tea Tree Gully is a predominantly residential municipality in Adelaide's north-eastern suburbs. Areas in the west of the City comprise established and newly developed residential suburbs, while in the City's east, the Hills interface zone provides a rural backdrop. The north-east of the City includes an established extractive industry area as well as the catchment area of the Little Para Reservoir.

Development history

The City of Tea Tree Gully has experienced significant population growth in the post war era, the original vineyards and predominantly rural uses of the area being transformed into residential suburbs. The primary housing market role that the City played over this period was to provide affordable home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the north-eastern and inner northern suburbs of Adelaide. In recent years, the Golden Grove development area has provided new housing for households being formed in the City of Tea Tree Gully as well as attracting significant numbers of new residents from the neighbouring Cities of Salisbury and Playford. After a number of decades of strong growth, the amount of available land for residential subdivision is becoming exhausted. This has resulted in a situation where the City is not providing enough new housing opportunities to house the number of new households being created.

Migration patterns

Migration patterns in the City of Tea Tree Gully will be composed of gain in some areas of future residential development, such as Highbury-Paracombe and to a lesser extent - Modbury and the surrounding suburbs. By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that the City will also experience some out-migration, namely younger persons aged 20-24 and mature adults, empty nesters and retirees aged 50-74, possibly to areas further out such as Playford, Gawler and the Barossa Valley.

Historical migration flows, City of Tea Tree Gully, 2016-2011
Historical migration flows, City of Tea Tree Gully, 2016-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

With the progressive residential development of the City over many decades and the large size of the municipality, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas such as Golden Grove and Greenwith-Salisbury Heights have had significant residential development in more recent years and are attractive to young and mature families seeking new housing opportunities. Many of the middle suburbs of the City that were developed in the 1960s and 1970s such as Redwood Park, Surrey Downs, Modbury and Modbury Heights are expected to regenerate through the City’s “urban renewal” strategy and offer some potential for young lone persons (e.g. students), young couples and families to enter the housing market. Utilising existing transport connections to other parts of Greater Adelaide (e.g. O-Bahn, major arterial roads) is expected to attract some migration into these areas. Areas in the south of the City such as Dernancourt and Highbury-Paracombe are attractive to mature families due to their proximity to central Adelaide and attractive streetscapes. Modbury plays a role as the most 'urban' part of the City, attracting significant numbers of students. Due to the identified potential for growth in Modbury, the City of Tea Tree Gully Council is exploring capacity for future development in the area. This variety of function and role of the small areas in the City of Tea Tree Gully means that population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential land within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the forecast period. 'Greenfield' opportunities are confined to Golden Grove-Gould Creek, with “The Settlement” development still expected to develop until the late 2010s. Many other suburbs have little or no potential of providing significant numbers of new dwellings with infill development providing the largest share of new dwellings in many areas and slightly higher density unit development occurring in areas identified for future urban renewal. Some areas such as Wynn Vale, which were being completed during the late 1980s and early 1990s, will begin to turn over for infill development as the suburb housing stock matures later in the forecast period.

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