City of Tea Tree GullyPopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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City of Tea Tree Gully

Births and deaths

In 2017, Banksia Park - Upper Hermitage is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.16 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.10 in 2036.

The number of births in the City of Tea Tree Gully are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of Tea Tree GullyYearChange between 2017 and 2036
City of Tea Tree Gully1.831.77-0.05
Banksia Park - Upper Hermitage2.162.10-0.06
Fairview Park - Yatala Vale1.901.82-0.07
Gilles Plains - Valley View2.112.02-0.09
Golden Grove - Gould Creek1.771.71-0.06
Greenwith - Salisbury Heights - Salisbury East1.721.66-0.06
Highbury - Paracombe2.021.94-0.08
Holden Hill1.521.49-0.02
Hope Valley1.941.87-0.07
Modbury Heights - Para Hills1.931.86-0.07
Modbury North1.851.78-0.06
Redwood Park1.791.74-0.05
St Agnes1.781.72-0.06
Surrey Downs1.701.65-0.05
Tea Tree Gully - Vista - Houghton1.891.81-0.08
Wynn Vale2.062.02-0.04

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Tea Tree Gully is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Tea Tree Gully, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.