Powered by .id (informed decisions) for Tamworth Regional Council
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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idImpact of COVID-19 on population growth
COVID-19 is a significant health crisis which has resulted in major social and economic disruption across the world. In Australia, the closure of borders (both external and internal) will have impacts on the size and distribution of future population growth. At a local level, the impacts on population growth and demographics outcomes will be felt differently.
.id developed population forecasts for Tamworth Regional Council in December 2017. These forecasts do not consider potential impacts to assumptions stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.
In order to further understand how COVID-19 may impact population growth within Tamworth Regional Council, we have developed a COVID-19 impact assessment. This assessment is based upon our understanding of typologies (i.e. the characteristics, roles and functions of communities). It demonstrates how these influences may play out across a range of variables, at a localised level. These include:
- Migration - who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area.
- Natural increase - impacts on the forecast numbers of births or deaths.
- Economic resilience - availability of jobs.
- Resident vulnerability - unmet social and economic needs.
- Local amenity - factors that make an area a more enjoyable place to live.
Characteristics of major regional cities
Tamworth Regional Council is one of 30 local government areas in regional Australia that can be classified as a major regional city.
Typical characteristics of major regional cities include:
- large resident population to support higher order services and a diverse economic base
- provider of services, facilities and employment for communities in surrounding areas
- critical infrastructure including, rail, ports and airports
- contain a Central Business District (CBD) as the main commercial and business centre
- contain suburbs, often in different life cycle stages
- attract new residents from surrounding areas, as well as from metropolitan capital cities
- affordable housing compared to metropolitan capital cities
- quality tertiary education opportunities to retain young people
- quality education and health infrastructure offer to retain and attract families
- recognised sporting and cultural facilities
Potential impacts on major regional cities
Based on our understanding of the characteristics of major regional cities, we consider the following to be likely impacts on population growth. These insights are not necessarily specific to the Tamworth Regional Council, but reflect challenges and opportunities for this type of place.
Overseas migration
Medium longer term impact from current net overseas migration shock as a high share of overseas born residents move to major regional cities only after having already lived in metropolitan capital cities.
Short-term impacts from net overseas migration shock greater in major regional cities in proximity to larger capital cities.
International student intake will be severely impacted in the short-to-medium term. This will be felt mostly in major regional cities with large universities that generally attract a large number of international students.
Internal migration
Interstate migration will be affected considerably in the short-term, due to border closures and economic uncertainty. Cities which typically experience net out-migration to other States will retain more residents, while cities which typically experience net in-migration will not gain as many new residents.
Intrastate migration Typically, major regional cities attract large numbers of new residents from other areas within the State, particularly from metropolitan capital cities. Levels of net in-migration could increase under COVID-19, particularly for major regional cities in proximity to metropolitan capital cities.
Natural increase
Births are likely to be fewer in the short-term as fertility typically declines in times of economic uncertainty. Major regional cities with current high levels of fertility, coupled with the loss of family-making age groups through less overseas migration, will be impacted more severely than other areas.
Deaths caused by COVID-19 are currently at very low levels. This is due to low overall case numbers, however, the number of deaths could increase in major regional cities if outbreaks were seen in areas with relatively large numbers of vulnerable elderly residents.
Economic resilience
Access to a range of jobs, including higher order service jobs means that major regional cities will generally retain a greater share of residents as well as attracting new residents, compared to other areas.
A diverse economic base which is supported by critical infrastructure means that major regional cities with a high functioning CBD, rail, ports and airports, are likely to retain and attract new residents, compared to other areas.
Strong long-standing regional linkages. Major regional cities which provide services, facilities and employment will attract new residents primarily from surrounding areas.
Resident vulnerability
COVID-19 will increase the likelihood of housing relocation among households who are already vulnerable due to factors such as, unemployment or insecure work, low income, and rental or mortgage stress.
Moving house could effect household formation in several ways including: younger residents moving back home with their parents, elderly residents moving in with their children (as dependants), formation of group households and other larger households to share housing costs.
Local amenity
Access to affordable quality accommodation means that major regional cities will attract new residents from metropolitan capital cities, which have comparatively more expensive housing.
Availability of lifestyle opportunities including access to open space and natural environment. A large number and diversity of lifestyle opportunities can draw residents to major regional cities.
Quality health, education, transport, sporting and cultural infrastructure. Major regional cities with these attributes will have high levels of amenity, attractive to new residents.
Tamworth Regional Council
Migration
Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Net migration explains who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area. It is therefore an excellent way of understanding housing markets and how the role and function of an area may be affected by COVID-19. Changes to migration may disproportionately affect industries such as the education sector due to their reliance on overseas migration.
| Migration | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Tamworth Regional Council | Greater Sydney | Potential impact |
| Overseas migration | |||
| Share of residents born overseas | 6.8% | 36.7% | Some negative impact |
| Overseas migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 62.7% | 139.9% | Some negative impact |
| Interstate migration | |||
| Interstate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | -27.0% | -17.3% | Some positve impact |
| Intrastate migration | |||
| Intrastate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 64.4% | -22.6% | Positive impact |
| International student impacts | |||
| Residents attending university | 1.8% | 6.1% | Negligible impact |
| Residents attending TAFE | 2.0% | 1.9% | Negligible impact |
Natural increase
The size of the population increases through births and decline through deaths. The number of forecast births is an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the fertility rate. The share of residents aged 70+ years provides an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the mortality rate due to COVID-19.
| Natural increase | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Tamworth Regional Council | Greater Sydney | Potential impact |
| Natural increase | |||
| Natural increase share of forecast population growth (2020 to 2024) | 52.0% | 62.5% | Some negative impact |
| Mortality | |||
| Share of residents aged 70+ years (2020) | 13.8% | 10.4% | Some exposure |
Economic vulnerability
Economic vulnerability is an indicator of the degree to which COVID-19 may negatively impact the employment prospects of local residents. Communities with high gross regional product decline and/or high levels of local jobs declining are more likely to experience lower levels of population growth. Additionally, economies with scale and diversification may be more likely to retain, and/or attract residents relative to other areas.
| Economic vulnerability | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Tamworth Regional Council | Greater Sydney | Potential impact |
| Economic output | |||
| Gross regional product change | -1.7% | -14.7% | Some negative impact |
| Local job impacts | |||
| Local job change | -0.4% | -9.2% | Some negative impact |
| Local job change (including JobKeeper recipients) | -0.4% | -15.2% | Some negative impact |
| Employed resident impacts | |||
| Employed resident change | 1.4% | -9.3% | Some positive impact |
| Employed resident change (including JobKeeper recipients) | 0.5% | -15.5% | Some positive impact |
| Share of residents who work in LGA | 91.2% | - | - |
Resident vulnerability
This indicator identifies communities with a high proportion of residents who have unmet social and economic needs (housing, income, education etc.) Due to COVID-19, these communities, particularly those with a younger, more mobile population, are expected to experience a greater change in how or where residents live (i.e. younger residents moving back home with their parents, formation of group households to share costs or leaving the area in search of employment opportunities elsewhere).
| Resident vulnerability | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Tamworth Regional Council | Greater Sydney | Potential impact |
| Socioeconomic vulnerability | |||
| SEIFA Rank (Disadvantage) | 962 | 1,018 | Some negative impact |
| Disengaged youth of 15-24 year olds | 13.5% | 7.6% | Negative impact |
| Share of low income households | 21.2% | 15.1% | Negative impact |
| Housing vulnerability | |||
| Share of households under housing stress | 11.6% | 11.8% | Some negative impact |
| Mortgage vulnerability | |||
| Share of households owned with mortgage | 28.9% | 31.5% | Some exposure |
| Share of households under mortgage stress | 9.3% | 10.3% | Some negative impact |
| Rental vulnerability | |||
| Share of households privately rented | 24.6% | 27.6% | Some exposure |
| Share of households under rental stress | 30.7% | 26.4% | Some negative impact |
| Residential mobility | |||
| Share population of 18-39 year olds | 25.2% | 33.0% | Some negative impact |
Local amenity
Local amenity considers the amenity a region provides its residents, with a particular focus on access to affordable housing and access to lifestyle opportunities. It is an indicator of the livability of an area, in the context of COVID-19.
| Local amenity | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Tamworth Regional Council | Greater Sydney | Potential impact |
| Housing Affordability | |||
| Housing Median Value | $355,000 | $1,054,000 | Positive impact |
| Unit Median Value | $234,000 | $753,000 | Positive impact |
Data updates
This page shows the latest version of how COVID-19 may impact population growth for Tamworth Regional Council. As new information becomes available (e.g. data revisions, additional data sets of relevance) updates will be applied.
Recent updates include:
- 7 October 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.1 (September 2020). NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.
- 25 September 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.0 (September 2020).
Given the dynamic nature of COVID-19, revisions will be made to our population forecasts once sufficient data is available.
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