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Tamworth Regional CouncilPopulation forecast

Tamworth Regional Council

Drivers of population change

Development history

The Tamworth Regional Council area is located in the New England Region of New South Wales, about 410 kilometres north-west of Sydney and 580 kilometres south of Brisbane. The area comprises the major urban centre of Tamworth, the small townships of Barraba, Kootingal, Manilla and Nundle, the villages of Attunga, Bendemeer, Dungowan, Duri, Moonbi, Somerton, Woolbrook and Woolomin, and various rural localities. The original inhabitants of the Tamworth Region were the Kamilaroi Aboriginal people.

European settlement dates from 1830 when squatters began to settle along the Peel River. with land used mainly for sheep and cattle grazing and wheat farming. Population growth was minimal until the 1850s and 1860s, spurred by the discovery of gold at Hanging Rock and Nundle, and the opening up of land. Significant development occurred in the urban area during the 1960s and 1970s. The population remained relatively stable during the 1990s, at nearly 52,000. In the 2000s, the population increased from around 54,000 in 2001, 55,000 in 2006 to about 58,000 in 2011.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the Tamworth Region has played during the post-war period was to attract families from the surrounding rural areas as well as overseas and lose young adults to larger centres such as Newcastle and into South East Queensland. The importance of the Tamworth Region as a destination for families is expected to continue over the forecast period. As a result of this there is significant pressure for residential expansion within the Tamworth Region from both existing residents and from people moving to the area.

It is assumed that this pattern will continue drive residential development on the outskirts of Tamworth, largely in the Hills Plain area to the North (Moore Creek & North Tamworth) as well as Calala and Hillvue to the South. The appeal of the area is a reflection of the climate, the significant amount of residential housing opportunities and employment prospects. Local demand is relatively strong as Tamworth has reached a size where it is creating significant numbers of new households as children leave the family home and seek new dwellings.

Historical migration flows, Tamworth Regional Council, 2011-2016

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

Housing role and function

With the variety of residential and rural locations, different areas within the Tamworth Region have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas on the outskirts of Tamworth such Calala (Residential), Hillvue, North Tamworth, Oxley Vale and Westdale - Taminda are attractive to young families. Areas that contain larger blocks of rural-residential land like Moore Creek - Daruka - Tintinhull – Hallsville and Warral - Kingswood - Nemingha - Calala (Rural) appeal to a more mature family market. Older suburbs closer to the CBD such as South Tamworth, Tamworth CBD - East Tamworth, West Tamworth (Central) and West Tamworth (Coledale) have a higher component of medium and high-density housing, which attracts a combination of younger adults and families as well as retirees and empty nesters. Most of the rural areas in the region attract family households as well as a significant proportion retirees while losing large numbers of young adults as they seek employment and educational opportunities in larger centres. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the Tamworth Region means that population outcomes differ significantly across the LGA.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the LGA which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures within the Tamworth Region over the next five to ten years. Significant new ’greenfield’ opportunities have been identified in North Tamworth, Hillvue, Moore Creek - Daruka - Tintinhull - Hallsville and Calala (Residential). Smaller growth areas such as Oxley Vale, Warral - Kingswood - Nemingha - Calala (Rural) and Westdale – Taminda are expected to also produce various forms of residential development, just not to the same scale of those areas listed above. Other areas such as South Tamworth, Tamworth CBD - East Tamworth, West Tamworth (Central), and West Tamworth (Coledale) are expected to have some growth in dwellings, but based predominantly on infill of vacant lots and more intense use of land.

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