Tamworth Regional CouncilPopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Tamworth Region

Births and deaths

In 2016 West Tamworth (Coledale) is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.33 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.32 in 2041.

The number of births in Tamworth Region are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Tamworth RegionYearChange between 2016 and 2041
Tamworth Region2.302.27-0.02
Barraba - Rural North2.572.79+0.22
Calala (Residential)1.992.12+0.13
Eastern Highlands2.462.36-0.10
Manilla and District2.762.72-0.04
Moore Creek - Daruka - Tintinhull - Hallsville2.272.04-0.24
North Tamworth1.691.92+0.23
Nundle - Rural South3.563.28-0.28
Oxley Vale2.122.24+0.13
South Tamworth2.472.29-0.18
Tamworth CBD - East Tamworth2.382.17-0.21
Warral - Kingswood - Nemingha - Calala (Rural)2.912.46-0.46
West Tamworth (Central)2.312.10-0.21
West Tamworth (Coledale)2.923.32+0.40
Westdale - Taminda1.702.07+0.37
Western Rural2.832.60-0.23

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Tamworth Region is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Tamworth Region, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.