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Surf Coast ShirePopulation forecast

Surf Coast Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Surf Coast Shire indicate a 15.1% increase in population under working age, a 57.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 18.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Surf Coast Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Surf Coast Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2,0086.62,3296.12,7966.1+788
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)3,05610.03,4799.24,1329.0+1,076
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2,3637.82,8317.53,3067.2+944
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)1,9006.22,6567.03,1036.8+1,203
Young workforce (25 to 34)3,26410.73,7409.94,5199.9+1,255
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)6,48721.37,53819.98,98219.6+2,496
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)4,17913.74,93613.05,65412.4+1,475
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)3,93412.94,57812.15,41211.8+1,478
Seniors (70 to 84)2,6968.94,84212.86,15813.5+3,462
Elderly aged (85 and over)5581.81,0192.71,6553.6+1,096
Total persons30,445100.037,948100.045,717100.0+15,272
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Surf Coast Shire was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 21.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 2,146 and account for 12.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 7,538 persons.

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