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Surf Coast ShirePopulation forecast

Surf Coast Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Surf Coast Shire indicate a 16.9% increase in females under working age, a 55.5% increase in females of retirement age, and a 19.1% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Surf Coast Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Surf Coast Shire - Total females201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49276.11,1426.01,3696.0+442
5 to 91,0577.01,2206.41,4526.3+395
10 to 141,0096.61,1366.01,3676.0+358
15 to 197695.19955.21,1605.1+391
20 to 246134.08384.49704.2+358
25 to 297524.98794.61,0634.6+311
30 to 349736.41,0625.61,2745.6+300
35 to 391,0126.71,3066.91,5496.7+536
40 to 441,1567.61,3497.11,5826.9+426
45 to 491,1507.61,2216.41,4896.5+340
50 to 541,0486.91,2546.61,4636.4+415
55 to 591,0657.01,2836.71,4306.2+365
60 to 641,0056.61,1806.21,4026.1+397
65 to 699406.21,0965.81,3105.7+370
70 to 746464.39725.11,1445.0+497
75 to 794282.88484.51,0324.5+604
80 to 842951.95783.08663.8+571
85 and over3592.46543.41,0204.4+661
Total persons15,207100.019,014100.022,945100.0+7,738
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for females in Surf Coast Shire was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 7.6% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 420 and account for 4.5% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2026 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 1,349 females.

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