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Surf Coast ShirePopulation forecast

Surf Coast Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Surf Coast Shire indicate a 15.1% increase in population under working age, a 57.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 18.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Surf Coast Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Surf Coast Shire - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,0086.62,3296.12,7966.1+788
5 to 92,1977.22,4926.62,9606.5+763
10 to 142,1076.92,4476.42,8816.3+774
15 to 191,6855.52,2045.82,5595.6+874
20 to 241,3304.41,8234.82,1424.7+812
25 to 291,4814.91,7184.52,0834.6+602
30 to 341,7835.92,0225.32,4365.3+653
35 to 391,9926.52,5036.62,9606.5+968
40 to 442,2807.52,5976.83,0686.7+787
45 to 492,2157.32,4386.42,9556.5+740
50 to 542,0786.82,4736.52,8596.3+781
55 to 592,1016.92,4636.52,7956.1+694
60 to 642,0516.72,3466.22,7846.1+734
65 to 691,8836.22,2325.92,6275.7+744
70 to 741,3244.32,0415.42,3785.2+1,054
75 to 798292.71,7134.52,1094.6+1,280
80 to 845421.81,0872.91,6703.7+1,128
85 and over5581.81,0192.71,6553.6+1,096
Total persons30,445100.037,948100.045,717100.0+15,272
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Surf Coast Shire was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 884 and account for 4.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 2,597 persons.

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