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City of StonningtonPopulation forecast

The City of Stonnington

Drivers of population change

Development history

The City of Stonnington is located in the established inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, with Prahran and Malvern approximately five and eight kilometres from the GPO respectively. The municipality is predominantly residential, although there are significant commercial centres along Chapel St (South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor), Malvern and at the Chadstone Shopping Centre (East Malvern).

Urban development in the City dates back to the nineteenth century, with development initially occurring at the western end in South Yarra, Prahran, Windsor and to a lesser degree Toorak and Malvern. These areas were relatively accessible to the Central Melbourne due to railway and tram links. The nature of housing stock was quite different between these areas with Prahran and Windsor having a greater share of workers cottages, while Toorak, Armadale and Malvern having a greater share of villas and larger houses.

Initial residential development in the west of the City spread along the rail corridors from west to east. By the 1950s, most of the eastern end of the City was established as residential. The primary housing market role that the City of Stonnington played during this period was to provide home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from the inner and inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

Migration patterns

The City has changed significantly since the 1960s, with a consequent change in the role and function of many of the City’s suburbs. with the construction of several large public housing projects in South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor and the ’flat boom’ of the 1960s and 1970s. By the 1970s and 1980s, the City was beginning to regenerate, with opportunities for families to move in and take advantage of the access to quality schools in the area. The late 1980s and 1990s saw further development opportunities with the rezoning of former industrial sites in South Yarra and surplus government and utility land to residential use.

There is significant pressure for residential expansion within Stonnington from both existing residents and from external migrants, most notably from younger adults and overseas students looking for rental housing. Affordability issues have nonetheless resulted in the loss of people to the middle southern and eastern suburbs. There are also losses of young people to the inner north and inner west from the Prahran area.

Stonnington has been affected by the impact of COVID-19, especially in the those areas of the City with large numbers of tertiary students, particularly overseas students. In total, owing to the pandemic, Stonnington has seen a net loss of approximately 10,500 persons to overseas migration and a further 6,000 through internal migration. This is assumed to be a short-term effect caused by Victoria’s lock-down and the closure of international borders, and that the migration patterns experienced prior to the pandemic will return over the next year now that those restrictions have been removed. In particular it is expected that there will be a return to the large levels of overseas in-migration experienced prior to the pandemic. This will also see a return to high levels of housing demand, fuelling in particular the development of higher density residential housing in the established areas of the City.

Historical migration flows, City of Stonnington, 2016-2021






Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Housing role and function

Given the age and diversity of the housing stock across the City and the large size of the municipality, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. These roles generally fall under two categories: 1. Young adults and tertiary students and; 2. Established and mature families. The first pattern tends to affect almost all areas in the municipality, especially South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor due to the proximity and access to tertiary education facilities in the inner City and the large quantity of rental stock. It also has a major influence in Malvern East, which is close to Monash University - Caulfield Campus and Holmesglen TAFE. The second pattern is noteworthy in the central parts of the City, such as Toorak-Kooyong, where the housing stock, the amenity and attractiveness of the areas drive local migration patterns. This difference in function and role of the small areas in the City of Stonnington means that population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality.

Housing supply

There are significant differences in the supply of residential development opportunities within the City which will have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to fifteen years. Significant large development sites have been identified in South Yarra, Prahran and Malvern East while Malvern, Armadale, Toorak, Windsor and Glen Iris have numerous smaller developments currently being undertaken or planned in the near future.

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