Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast
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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds indicate a 7.7% decrease in population under working age, a 45.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.4% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shoalhaven City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 3265.62724.22804.2-46
5 to 9 3035.22924.52964.4-6
10 to 14 2864.92814.32794.2-7
15 to 19 2664.62303.62143.2-52
20 to 24 1973.41892.91852.8-12
25 to 29 2524.32153.32253.4-27
30 to 34 2614.52604.02664.0+5
35 to 39 3075.32964.63034.5-5
40 to 44 3365.83365.23375.1+2
45 to 49 3175.43465.33455.2+29
50 to 54 3566.13605.63545.3-2
55 to 59 4087.03785.83765.6-32
60 to 64 4397.54236.54456.7+7
65 to 69 5309.14977.75057.6-25
70 to 74 4517.75488.55287.9+77
75 to 79 3245.55218.05277.9+204
80 to 84 1833.14797.45137.7+330
85 and over2965.15498.569610.4+400
Total persons5,834100.06,471100.06,674100.0+840

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 696 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 513 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 527 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 528 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 505 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 445 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 376 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 354 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 345 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 337 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 303 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 266 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 225 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 185 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 214 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 279 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 296 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 280 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031: 549 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2031: 479 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2031: 521 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2031: 548 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2031: 497 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2031: 423 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2031: 378 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2031: 360 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2031: 346 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2031: 336 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2031: 296 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2031: 260 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2031: 215 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2031: 189 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2031: 230 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2031: 281 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2031: 292 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031: 272 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 296 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 183 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 324 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 451 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 530 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 439 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 408 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 356 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 317 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 336 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 307 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 261 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 252 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 197 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 286 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 303 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 326
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031 to 2041: 148 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2031 to 2041: 34 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2031 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2031 to 2041: -21 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2031 to 2041: 8 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2031 to 2041: 23 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2031 to 2041: -2 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2031 to 2041: -7 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2031 to 2041: -1 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2031 to 2041: 1 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2031 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2031 to 2041: 6 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2031 to 2041: 9 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2031 to 2041: -4 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2031 to 2041: -16 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2031 to 2041: -2 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2031 to 2041: 5 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031 to 2041: 8 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2031: 253 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2031: 296 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2031: 197 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2031: 98 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2031: -33 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2031: -16 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2031: -29 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2031: 5 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2031: 29 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2031: 1 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2031: -12 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2031: -1 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2031: -36 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2031: -8 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2031: -36 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2031: -5 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2031: -11 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2031: -54
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds was ages 65 to 69 , which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 80 to 84 , which is expected to increase by 296 and account for 7.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 85 and over years, with a total of 549 persons.

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