Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast
census-message-logo

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

Skip to content

Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds is forecast for the period from 2017 to 2021, which is expected to have a net increase of 485 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
Vincentia - Erowal Bay & SurroundsForecast period
Component2012 to 20162017 to 20212022 to 20262027 to 20312032 to 2036
Births--309313312313
Deaths--417419453478
Natural increase/decrease---108-106-141-164
Net migration--593463274252
Change in persons in non-private dwellings--0000

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2036 forecast population change: 6 2035 forecast population change: 15 2034 forecast population change: 20 2033 forecast population change: 24 2032 forecast population change: 22 2031 forecast population change: 23 2030 forecast population change: 20 2029 forecast population change: 23 2028 forecast population change: 31 2027 forecast population change: 36 2026 forecast population change: 36 2025 forecast population change: 71 2024 forecast population change: 74 2023 forecast population change: 86 2022 forecast population change: 89 2021 forecast population change: 112 2020 forecast population change: 101 2019 forecast population change: 102 2018 forecast population change: 99 2017 forecast population change: 73
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2036 Natural increase: -33 2035 Natural increase: -34 2034 Natural increase: -33 2033 Natural increase: -32 2032 Natural increase: -32 2031 Natural increase: -31 2030 Natural increase: -30 2029 Natural increase: -28 2028 Natural increase: -27 2027 Natural increase: -25 2026 Natural increase: -23 2025 Natural increase: -22 2024 Natural increase: -21 2023 Natural increase: -20 2022 Natural increase: -20 2021 Natural increase: -21 2020 Natural increase: -22 2019 Natural increase: -22 2018 Natural increase: -22 2017 Natural increase: -21 2036 Total deaths: 96 2035 Total deaths: 97 2034 Total deaths: 96 2033 Total deaths: 95 2032 Total deaths: 94 2031 Total deaths: 93 2030 Total deaths: 92 2029 Total deaths: 91 2028 Total deaths: 89 2027 Total deaths: 88 2026 Total deaths: 86 2025 Total deaths: 85 2024 Total deaths: 83 2023 Total deaths: 83 2022 Total deaths: 82 2021 Total deaths: 83 2020 Total deaths: 84 2019 Total deaths: 84 2018 Total deaths: 83 2017 Total deaths: 83 2036 Total births: 63 2035 Total births: 63 2034 Total births: 63 2033 Total births: 62 2032 Total births: 62 2031 Total births: 62 2030 Total births: 62 2029 Total births: 62 2028 Total births: 62 2027 Total births: 62 2026 Total births: 63 2025 Total births: 63 2024 Total births: 63 2023 Total births: 63 2022 Total births: 62 2021 Total births: 62 2020 Total births: 62 2019 Total births: 62 2018 Total births: 62 2017 Total births: 62 2036 Natural increase: -33 2035 Natural increase: -34 2034 Natural increase: -33 2033 Natural increase: -32 2032 Natural increase: -32 2031 Natural increase: -31 2030 Natural increase: -30 2029 Natural increase: -28 2028 Natural increase: -27 2027 Natural increase: -25 2026 Natural increase: -23 2025 Natural increase: -22 2024 Natural increase: -21 2023 Natural increase: -20 2022 Natural increase: -20 2021 Natural increase: -21 2020 Natural increase: -22 2019 Natural increase: -22 2018 Natural increase: -22 2017 Natural increase: -21 2036 Total deaths: 96 2035 Total deaths: 97 2034 Total deaths: 96 2033 Total deaths: 95 2032 Total deaths: 94 2031 Total deaths: 93 2030 Total deaths: 92 2029 Total deaths: 91 2028 Total deaths: 89 2027 Total deaths: 88 2026 Total deaths: 86 2025 Total deaths: 85 2024 Total deaths: 83 2023 Total deaths: 83 2022 Total deaths: 82 2021 Total deaths: 83 2020 Total deaths: 84 2019 Total deaths: 84 2018 Total deaths: 83 2017 Total deaths: 83 2036 Total births: 63 2035 Total births: 63 2034 Total births: 63 2033 Total births: 62 2032 Total births: 62 2031 Total births: 62 2030 Total births: 62 2029 Total births: 62 2028 Total births: 62 2027 Total births: 62 2026 Total births: 63 2025 Total births: 63 2024 Total births: 63 2023 Total births: 63 2022 Total births: 62 2021 Total births: 62 2020 Total births: 62 2019 Total births: 62 2018 Total births: 62 2017 Total births: 62
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2036 Total net migration: 40 2035 Total net migration: 49 2034 Total net migration: 53 2033 Total net migration: 56 2032 Total net migration: 53 2031 Total net migration: 54 2030 Total net migration: 50 2029 Total net migration: 51 2028 Total net migration: 57 2027 Total net migration: 61 2026 Total net migration: 59 2025 Total net migration: 93 2024 Total net migration: 95 2023 Total net migration: 106 2022 Total net migration: 109 2021 Total net migration: 133 2020 Total net migration: 123 2019 Total net migration: 124 2018 Total net migration: 120 2017 Total net migration: 94 2036 Total out migration: 471 2035 Total out migration: 470 2034 Total out migration: 469 2033 Total out migration: 468 2032 Total out migration: 466 2031 Total out migration: 465 2030 Total out migration: 464 2029 Total out migration: 464 2028 Total out migration: 462 2027 Total out migration: 460 2026 Total out migration: 459 2025 Total out migration: 456 2024 Total out migration: 452 2023 Total out migration: 447 2022 Total out migration: 442 2021 Total out migration: 434 2020 Total out migration: 429 2019 Total out migration: 424 2018 Total out migration: 417 2017 Total out migration: 416 2036 Total in migration: 511 2035 Total in migration: 519 2034 Total in migration: 522 2033 Total in migration: 524 2032 Total in migration: 520 2031 Total in migration: 519 2030 Total in migration: 514 2029 Total in migration: 515 2028 Total in migration: 519 2027 Total in migration: 521 2026 Total in migration: 518 2025 Total in migration: 549 2024 Total in migration: 547 2023 Total in migration: 554 2022 Total in migration: 551 2021 Total in migration: 567 2020 Total in migration: 551 2019 Total in migration: 548 2018 Total in migration: 537 2017 Total in migration: 510 2036 Total net migration: 40 2035 Total net migration: 49 2034 Total net migration: 53 2033 Total net migration: 56 2032 Total net migration: 53 2031 Total net migration: 54 2030 Total net migration: 50 2029 Total net migration: 51 2028 Total net migration: 57 2027 Total net migration: 61 2026 Total net migration: 59 2025 Total net migration: 93 2024 Total net migration: 95 2023 Total net migration: 106 2022 Total net migration: 109 2021 Total net migration: 133 2020 Total net migration: 123 2019 Total net migration: 124 2018 Total net migration: 120 2017 Total net migration: 94 2036 Total out migration: 471 2035 Total out migration: 470 2034 Total out migration: 469 2033 Total out migration: 468 2032 Total out migration: 466 2031 Total out migration: 465 2030 Total out migration: 464 2029 Total out migration: 464 2028 Total out migration: 462 2027 Total out migration: 460 2026 Total out migration: 459 2025 Total out migration: 456 2024 Total out migration: 452 2023 Total out migration: 447 2022 Total out migration: 442 2021 Total out migration: 434 2020 Total out migration: 429 2019 Total out migration: 424 2018 Total out migration: 417 2017 Total out migration: 416 2036 Total in migration: 511 2035 Total in migration: 519 2034 Total in migration: 522 2033 Total in migration: 524 2032 Total in migration: 520 2031 Total in migration: 519 2030 Total in migration: 514 2029 Total in migration: 515 2028 Total in migration: 519 2027 Total in migration: 521 2026 Total in migration: 518 2025 Total in migration: 549 2024 Total in migration: 547 2023 Total in migration: 554 2022 Total in migration: 551 2021 Total in migration: 567 2020 Total in migration: 551 2019 Total in migration: 548 2018 Total in migration: 537 2017 Total in migration: 510
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
v18.07.11-1.0.0