Shoalhaven City CouncilPopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Shoalhaven City

Births and deaths

In 2016 Bangalee - Cambewarra Village - Tapitallee & Surrounds is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.31 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.21 in 2041.

The number of births in Shoalhaven City are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Shoalhaven CityYearChange between 2016 and 2041
Shoalhaven City2.092.13+0.05
Bangalee - Cambewarra Village - Tapitallee & Surrounds3.373.21-0.15
Berry & Surrounds2.532.36-0.18
Burrill Lake - Kings Point - Dolphin Point - Lake Tabourie1.902.14+0.24
Callala Bay - Callala Beach - Currarong - Myola & Surrounds2.362.39+0.03
Coastal Mid1.842.32+0.47
Coastal South2.362.81+0.44
Culburra Beach - Orient Point2.262.25-0.01
Greenwell Point - Terara & Surrounds2.422.32-0.10
Huskisson - Falls Creek - Tomerong - Woollamia1.972.10+0.13
Milton - Mollymook - Mollymook Beach - Narrawallee & Surrounds2.102.19+0.09
North Nowra1.941.95+0.02
Rural Balance2.142.09-0.05
Sanctuary Point2.222.06-0.16
Shoalhaven Heads1.911.910
St Georges Basin - Basin View2.432.16-0.26
Sussex Inlet - Swanhaven - Berrara - Cudmirrah & Surrounds1.862.14+0.29
Vincentia - Erowal Bay & Surrounds2.152.17+0.01
West Nowra - South Nowra - Nowra Hill & Surrounds1.181.67+0.49

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2018.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Shoalhaven City is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Shoalhaven City, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.