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City of Greater SheppartonPopulation forecast

Kialla Urban

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Kialla Urban indicate a 20.9% increase in population under working age, a 20.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 15.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Greater Shepparton is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kialla Urban - Total persons202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45707.67628.68678.1+298
5 to 96308.47158.18868.2+256
10 to 146038.07027.98608.0+257
15 to 194646.25706.56976.5+233
20 to 243785.04364.95324.9+155
25 to 294576.15075.75735.3+116
30 to 344906.55846.66536.1+163
35 to 395687.66587.47667.1+197
40 to 445287.06497.47787.2+250
45 to 494576.15526.27086.6+251
50 to 544225.64334.95785.4+156
55 to 593684.94344.95064.7+139
60 to 643785.04064.64824.5+104
65 to 693154.24074.64914.6+176
70 to 743244.33423.94614.3+137
75 to 792383.22933.33913.6+153
80 to 841532.02022.32732.5+120
85 and over1522.01792.02642.5+112
Total persons7,493100.08,831100.010,766100.0+3,273
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Kialla Urban was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 193 and account for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 762 persons.

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