City of Greater Shepparton
Births and deaths
In 2016 Shepparton Surrounds South is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.33 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.29 in 2036.
The number of births in the City of Greater Shepparton are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.
Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.
| Forecast fertility rates (births per woman) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Greater Shepparton | Year | Change between 2016 and 2036 | |||||
| Area | 2016 | 2036 | Number | ||||
| City of Greater Shepparton | 2.25 | 2.30 | +0.05 | 2.2900 | 2016 | 272 | 10 |
| Kialla Urban | 2.87 | 2.79 | -0.08 | 2.8500 | 2016 | 272 | 100 |
| Mooroopna | 2.17 | 2.13 | -0.04 | 2.1500 | 2016 | 272 | 110 |
| Rural East | 3.33 | 3.29 | -0.05 | 3.0800 | 2016 | 272 | 120 |
| Rural North | 2.66 | 2.57 | -0.09 | 2.6500 | 2016 | 272 | 130 |
| Rural North West | 2.35 | 2.35 | 0 | 2.3700 | 2016 | 272 | 140 |
| Rural South | 1.70 | 1.69 | -0.01 | 1.4900 | 2016 | 272 | 150 |
| Shepparton Central | 1.80 | 1.75 | -0.04 | 1.7500 | 2016 | 272 | 160 |
| Shepparton North Central | 1.99 | 1.98 | -0.01 | 1.9800 | 2016 | 272 | 170 |
| Shepparton North East | 2.58 | 2.49 | -0.09 | 2.5600 | 2016 | 272 | 180 |
| Shepparton North West | 2.30 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 2.2900 | 2016 | 272 | 190 |
| Shepparton South | 2.05 | 1.98 | -0.06 | 2.0300 | 2016 | 272 | 200 |
| Shepparton South East | 2.00 | 2.51 | +0.51 | 2.5200 | 2016 | 272 | 210 |
| Shepparton Surrounds East | 3.13 | 3.01 | -0.12 | 3.1100 | 2016 | 272 | 220 |
| Shepparton Surrounds South | 3.34 | 3.29 | -0.05 | 3.3300 | 2016 | 272 | 230 |
| Tatura | 2.43 | 2.40 | -0.03 | 2.4200 | 2016 | 272 | 240 |
| Shepparton Urban Centre | 2.18 | 2.29 | +0.12 | 2.2700 | 2016 | 272 | 300 |
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (opens a new window), the population experts, October 2017.
Death rates
The forecast number of deaths in the City of Greater Shepparton is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Greater Shepparton, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).
Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.