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Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast

Shellharbour City Council

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Shellharbour City Council indicate a 17.0% increase in population under working age, a 46.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shellharbour City Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Shellharbour City Council - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,6846.65,4946.76,2066.5+1,522
5 to 94,9077.05,7287.06,3996.7+1,492
10 to 144,7136.75,5156.76,2076.5+1,494
15 to 194,9087.05,1856.35,8506.2+942
20 to 244,6076.54,5935.65,1895.5+582
25 to 294,2106.04,5785.65,0115.3+801
30 to 344,3956.25,0056.15,5355.8+1,140
35 to 394,1575.95,2736.45,9556.3+1,798
40 to 444,6976.75,3256.56,1006.4+1,403
45 to 494,5616.54,8765.95,8856.2+1,324
50 to 544,7656.84,7305.75,4265.7+661
55 to 594,5856.54,5815.65,0965.4+511
60 to 643,9335.64,7965.84,8385.1+905
65 to 693,6755.24,6765.74,8585.1+1,183
70 to 742,7994.03,9024.74,5624.8+1,763
75 to 792,1283.03,2073.94,2144.4+2,086
80 to 841,4172.02,2722.83,5893.8+2,171
85 and over1,3511.92,5563.13,9574.2+2,606
Total persons70,492100.082,293100.094,877100.0+24,385
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Shellharbour City Council was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 1,205 and account for 3.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 5,728 persons.

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