Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Warilla

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Warilla indicate a 13.9% increase in population under working age, a 13.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Shellharbour City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warilla - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44176.24676.74876.5+70
5 to 94286.44726.74936.6+65
10 to 143545.34276.14716.3+116
15 to 194436.64176.04736.3+30
20 to 244616.93825.54305.7-30
25 to 294016.03645.23835.1-18
30 to 343184.83615.23684.9+50
35 to 393014.53835.53955.3+94
40 to 443114.63795.44275.7+116
45 to 494366.53665.24405.9+4
50 to 544837.23735.34275.7-56
55 to 594536.84366.23965.3-58
60 to 643625.44486.43745.0+12
65 to 693665.54176.03735.0+7
70 to 743845.73454.94005.3+17
75 to 793325.03254.73955.3+63
80 to 842393.63004.33474.6+108
85 and over1952.93314.74245.7+229
Total persons6,684100.06,992100.07,504100.0+820

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 424 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 347 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 395 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 400 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 373 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 374 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 396 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 427 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 440 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 427 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 395 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 368 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 383 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 430 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 473 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 471 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 493 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 487 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 331 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 300 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 325 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 345 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 417 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 448 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 436 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 373 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 366 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 379 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 383 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 361 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 364 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 382 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 417 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 427 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 472 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 467 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 195 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 239 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 332 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 384 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 366 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 362 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 453 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 483 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 436 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 311 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 301 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 318 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 401 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 461 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 443 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 354 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 428 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 417
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 93 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 48 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 70 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 55 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: -44 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: -74 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: -41 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 54 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 74 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 47 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 12 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 7 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 19 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 49 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 56 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 43 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 22 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 20 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 136 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 60 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: -7 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: -39 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 51 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 86 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: -17 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: -110 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -70 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 69 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 82 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 43 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: -37 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: -79 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: -26 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 73 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 43 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 50
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Warilla was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 136 and account for 4.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 472 persons.

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