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Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast

Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre indicate a 69.0% increase in population under working age, a 75.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 54.0% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42135.83626.13665.1+153
5 to 91835.03435.83685.1+185
10 to 142406.53706.34306.0+190
15 to 192857.84187.14997.0+214
20 to 242196.03976.74436.2+224
25 to 292486.73515.93625.1+114
30 to 342085.73435.83454.8+137
35 to 392065.63976.73995.6+193
40 to 442346.44036.84456.2+211
45 to 492506.83826.54676.5+217
50 to 542577.03235.54396.1+182
55 to 592125.83015.14115.7+199
60 to 642446.63245.53995.6+155
65 to 692045.63025.13845.4+180
70 to 741153.12834.83665.1+251
75 to 791173.22173.73314.6+214
80 to 84832.31352.32834.0+200
85 and over1574.32474.24115.7+254
Total persons3,675100.05,896100.07,147100.0+3,472
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 7.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 191 and account for 6.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 418 persons.

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