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Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast

Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Blackbutt - Shellharbour City Centre is 10-14 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Shellharbour City Council depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Migration rates increase between 2016-2026, influenced by medium density development around Shellharbour City Centre in the short to medium term, before declining in most age groups as the available supply becomes exhausted
  • Modest gain of families, particularly those with older children (10-14 years)
  • Modest gain of young adults and couples (18-29 years) during the earlier period, falling to a loss post 2026
  • Small increase in older persons aged 60 years and over.

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