Shellharbour City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Shellharbour City

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Shellharbour City is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2021 to 2026.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Shellharbour City depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Migration assumptions influenced by:

  • Significant new housing opportunities across the City, particularly in Rural Balance and Shell Cove, which are expected to attract predominantly (but not exclusively) young families and couples (25-39 years) accessing family type housing in order to start families at a point in the future
  • Significant out-migration of young adults (15-24 years) to Wollongong and Sydney, primarily for employment and education purposes
  • Modest gain of older adults and empty-nesters (50-69 years) attracted to coastal suburbs
  • Modest loss of retirees aged 70+ years.
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2031: 24 Persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2031: -103 Persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2031: -154 Persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2031: -130 Persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2031: 36 Persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2031: 145 Persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2031: 7 Persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2031: -53 Persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2031: -62 Persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2031: 273 Persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2031: 524 Persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2031: 667 Persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2031: 330 Persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2031: -361 Persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2031: -299 Persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2031: 67 Persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2031: 339 Persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2031: 716 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 52 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -44 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -106 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -49 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 124 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 188 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 97 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -8 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 71 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 453 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 597 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 637 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 246 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: -250 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: -99 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 250 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 485 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 798 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 31 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: -59 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: -93 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: -47 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 131 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 191 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 32 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: -16 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: -28 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 408 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 541 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 484 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 191 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: -370 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: -179 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 194 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 434 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 703 Persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2031: 24 Persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2031: -103 Persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2031: -154 Persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2031: -130 Persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2031: 36 Persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2031: 145 Persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2031: 7 Persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2031: -53 Persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2031: -62 Persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2031: 273 Persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2031: 524 Persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2031: 667 Persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2031: 330 Persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2031: -361 Persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2031: -299 Persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2031: 67 Persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2031: 339 Persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2031: 716 Persons aged 85+,  2021 to 2026: 52 Persons aged 80-84,  2021 to 2026: -44 Persons aged 75-79,  2021 to 2026: -106 Persons aged 70-74,  2021 to 2026: -49 Persons aged 65-69,  2021 to 2026: 124 Persons aged 60-64,  2021 to 2026: 188 Persons aged 55-59,  2021 to 2026: 97 Persons aged 50-54,  2021 to 2026: -8 Persons aged 45-49,  2021 to 2026: 71 Persons aged 40-44,  2021 to 2026: 453 Persons aged 35-39,  2021 to 2026: 597 Persons aged 30-34,  2021 to 2026: 637 Persons aged 25-29,  2021 to 2026: 246 Persons aged 20-24,  2021 to 2026: -250 Persons aged 15-19,  2021 to 2026: -99 Persons aged 10-14,  2021 to 2026: 250 Persons aged 5-9,  2021 to 2026: 485 Persons aged 0-4,  2021 to 2026: 798 Persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2021: 31 Persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2021: -59 Persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2021: -93 Persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2021: -47 Persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2021: 131 Persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2021: 191 Persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2021: 32 Persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2021: -16 Persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2021: -28 Persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2021: 408 Persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2021: 541 Persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2021: 484 Persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2021: 191 Persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2021: -370 Persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2021: -179 Persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2021: 194 Persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2021: 434 Persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2021: 703
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2019.
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