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Shire of Serpentine JarrahdalePopulation forecast

Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale indicate a 35.8% increase in males under working age, a 66.4% increase in males of retirement age, and a 69.7% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale - Total males202120312046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1,5018.92,0827.73,9468.2+2,445
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)1,99511.92,68410.05,01210.4+3,017
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)1,4408.62,1417.93,5267.3+2,086
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)1,3237.92,4599.13,8528.0+2,529
Young workforce (25 to 34)2,43414.54,21315.67,34215.2+4,908
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)3,55321.26,19623.011,00722.8+7,454
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)2,09012.53,11211.56,09512.6+4,005
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)1,3237.92,3698.84,2278.7+2,904
Seniors (70 to 84)1,0166.11,4545.42,8095.8+1,794
Elderly aged (85 and over)1060.62410.95461.1+440
Total persons16,781100.026,952100.048,362100.0+31,581
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for males in Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 21.2% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which is expected to increase by 2,643 and account for 23.0% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2031 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 6,196 males.

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