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Shire of Serpentine JarrahdalePopulation forecast

Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale indicate a 40.6% increase in population under working age, a 66.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 63.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale - Total persons202120312046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,9438.84,0967.87,7458.1+4,803
5 to 92,8668.63,9597.57,4307.8+4,564
10 to 142,5887.83,7557.16,4276.7+3,839
15 to 192,0406.13,5696.85,8476.1+3,807
20 to 241,8405.53,6697.05,9176.2+4,077
25 to 292,3186.93,7547.16,4366.8+4,118
30 to 342,8558.64,3808.37,8768.3+5,022
35 to 392,7338.24,2978.28,3408.8+5,606
40 to 442,2036.64,1227.87,3817.7+5,178
45 to 492,0586.23,5496.76,2916.6+4,233
50 to 542,1336.42,9545.65,6145.9+3,481
55 to 591,9255.82,6895.15,4355.7+3,510
60 to 641,5374.62,3824.54,4144.6+2,877
65 to 691,1653.52,0093.83,3643.5+2,199
70 to 749732.91,4432.72,5282.7+1,555
75 to 795821.78571.61,6351.7+1,053
80 to 843661.16471.21,2261.3+860
85 and over2310.75591.11,3681.4+1,137
Total persons33,355100.052,691100.095,275100.0+61,920
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 1,920 and account for 7.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 4,380 persons.

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