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City of RockinghamPopulation forecast

Warnbro

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Warnbro indicate a 4.5% decrease in population under working age, a 38.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.6% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Rockingham is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Warnbro - Total persons202120312046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 47246.56976.26526.3-73
5 to 97867.17226.56656.4-121
10 to 148077.37947.16986.7-110
15 to 197196.58757.87407.1+21
20 to 246776.17216.56045.8-73
25 to 297106.44594.14314.1-279
30 to 347176.46215.66035.8-114
35 to 397576.87927.17166.9-41
40 to 446285.67997.26946.7+66
45 to 497286.57797.06796.5-49
50 to 547336.66345.76386.1-94
55 to 598367.55434.95555.3-280
60 to 647116.45184.64934.8-217
65 to 695214.76055.44284.1-93
70 to 744123.75755.24284.1+16
75 to 793032.74103.74124.0+109
80 to 842121.93082.83973.8+185
85 and over1431.33112.85545.3+411
Total persons11,125100.011,164100.010,388100.0-736
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Warnbro was ages 55 to 59, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 171 and account for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 875 persons.

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