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City of Port PhillipPopulation forecast

City of Port Phillip

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2041, the age structure forecasts for City of Port Phillip indicate a 39.9% increase in population under working age, a 92.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 59.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of City of Port Phillip is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

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Forecast age structure - Service age groups
City of Port Phillip - Total persons20212041[Parameter].[Year3Label]Change between 2021 and [Parameter].[Year3Label]
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)4,3394.27,2704.37,2704.3+2,931
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)5,3835.26,8814.16,8814.1+1,498
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)4,1664.05,5233.35,5233.3+1,357
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)7,2477.015,7829.415,7829.4+8,535
Young workforce (25 to 34)23,81523.042,48125.442,48125.4+18,665
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)26,11025.236,95022.136,95022.1+10,840
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)13,42113.018,32210.918,32210.9+4,902
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)9,6929.414,7838.814,7838.8+5,091
Seniors (70 to 84)7,9277.715,3549.215,3549.2+7,427
Elderly aged (85 and over)1,4501.44,0162.44,0162.4+2,566
Total persons103,550100.0167,363100.0167,363100.0+63,813
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2022.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Port Phillip was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 25.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2041 is forecast to be in ages Young workforce (25 to 34), which is expected to increase by 18,665 and account for 25.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2041 is Young workforce (25 to 34) years, with a total of 42,481 persons.

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