City of Port PhillipPopulation forecast
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South Melbourne

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for South Melbourne indicate a 10.1% increase in population under working age, a 19.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 26.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of City of Port Phillip is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
South Melbourne - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45496.06806.08176.3+268
5 to 94034.44353.85544.2+151
10 to 143664.03363.04143.2+48
15 to 193283.64233.74863.7+157
20 to 244805.27266.48076.2+328
25 to 297548.21,0709.51,2039.2+449
30 to 348969.81,25211.11,39710.7+502
35 to 397207.81,1099.81,2339.5+513
40 to 447848.58347.49687.4+184
45 to 497167.86776.08546.6+138
50 to 546236.87146.37906.1+167
55 to 595706.26776.07415.7+172
60 to 644915.35835.26384.9+147
65 to 694565.04814.25734.4+118
70 to 743233.53733.34673.6+144
75 to 792662.93032.73622.8+95
80 to 842172.41981.72501.9+33
85 and over2432.64403.94733.6+231
Total persons9,184100.011,310100.013,029100.0+3,844

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 473 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 250 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 362 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 467 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 573 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 638 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 741 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 790 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 854 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 968 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 1,233 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 1,397 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 1,203 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 807 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 486 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 414 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 554 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 817 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 440 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 198 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 303 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 373 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 481 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 583 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 677 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 714 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 677 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 834 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 1,109 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 1,252 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 1,070 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 726 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 423 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 336 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 435 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 680 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 243 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 217 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 266 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 323 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 456 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 491 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 570 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 623 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 716 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 784 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 720 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 896 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 754 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 480 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 328 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 366 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 403 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 549
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2041: 33 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2041: 52 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2041: 58 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2041: 94 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2041: 93 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2041: 56 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2041: 65 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2041: 75 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2041: 177 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2041: 135 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2041: 124 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2041: 146 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2041: 133 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2041: 81 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2041: 63 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2041: 79 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2041: 118 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2041: 137 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 197 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: -19 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 50 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 25 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 92 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 107 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 92 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: -39 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 49 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 388 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 356 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 317 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 247 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 95 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: -31 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 32 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 131
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in South Melbourne was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 9.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 388 and account for 9.8% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 1,252 persons.

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